{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\Romi\Dropbox\PhD Thesis\Second\RAP\Submission\R&R January\coups_RAP_Jan2019.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}18 Jan 2019, 11:27:58

{com}. do "C:\Users\Romi\AppData\Local\Temp\STD00000000.tmp"
{txt}
{com}. set more off
{txt}
{com}. 
. use "coups_RAP.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Model 1 (Table 2)
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 lrgdppc h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 lrgdppc a_*) vce(cluster ccode)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-197.11212}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-178.61366}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-177.37802}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -177.3277}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -177.3277}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1045.9075}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-920.97963}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-912.40644}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-911.97122}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-911.96779}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-911.96779}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-199.62639}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-176.21965}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.08177}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.05215}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.05215}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1143.8137}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1091.9326}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.6604}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.2524}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.0882}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.0743}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.0638}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.0636}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-1087.0636}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     4147
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3859
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      288

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    12.39
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-1087.064                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0298

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:116} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1998944{col 26}{space 2}  .265879{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.452{col 54}{space 4}-.7210077{col 67}{space 3} .3212189
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0052985{col 26}{space 2} .0743613{col 37}{space 1}   -0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.943{col 54}{space 4}-.1510439{col 67}{space 3} .1404469
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0023034{col 26}{space 2} .0010654{col 37}{space 1}   -2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4}-.0043916{col 67}{space 3}-.0002152
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0021788{col 26}{space 2} .0009913{col 37}{space 1}    2.20{col 46}{space 3}0.028{col 54}{space 4} .0002358{col 67}{space 3} .0041218
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0009383{col 26}{space 2} .0004151{col 37}{space 1}   -2.26{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4} -.001752{col 67}{space 3}-.0001247
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.343723{col 26}{space 2} .5476961{col 37}{space 1}    2.45{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}  .270258{col 67}{space 3} 2.417187
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6120513{col 26}{space 2}  .082032{col 37}{space 1}   -7.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.772831{col 67}{space 3}-.4512715
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3743336{col 26}{space 2}  .127939{col 37}{space 1}   -2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.6250895{col 67}{space 3}-.1235777
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0160379{col 26}{space 2}  .114387{col 37}{space 1}    0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.888{col 54}{space 4}-.2081565{col 67}{space 3} .2402322
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1099352{col 26}{space 2} .0461924{col 37}{space 1}   -2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}-.2004706{col 67}{space 3}-.0193998
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0016918{col 26}{space 2} .0006604{col 37}{space 1}    2.56{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0003973{col 67}{space 3} .0029862
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0009897{col 26}{space 2} .0004362{col 37}{space 1}   -2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-.0018447{col 67}{space 3}-.0001347
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002393{col 26}{space 2} .0001282{col 37}{space 1}    1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}-.0000119{col 67}{space 3} .0004905
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0443638{col 26}{space 2} .3234809{col 37}{space 1}    0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.891{col 54}{space 4} -.589647{col 67}{space 3} .6783746
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.015874{col 26}{space 2} .4093789{col 37}{space 1}   -2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4}-1.818242{col 67}{space 3}-.2135066
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.7681808{col 26}{space 2} .1678037{col 54}{space 4}-.9486629{col 67}{space 3}-.2103204
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    6.16   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0131
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **Model 2 (Table 2)
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-164.71826}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-146.14034}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.15477}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.14551}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.14551}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-872.89358}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-712.26077}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-693.31362}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-692.31356}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -692.2815}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-692.28147}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-166.35532}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.71346}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.68326}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.66676}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.66667}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.66667}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-928.05874}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-841.16042}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -835.621}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-835.07082}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-834.33776}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-834.25991}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-834.21555}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-834.21554}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3474
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3234
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      240

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}12{txt})      = {res}    37.54
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-834.2155                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0002

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1778849{col 26}{space 2} .3173844{col 37}{space 1}   -0.56{col 46}{space 3}0.575{col 54}{space 4} -.799947{col 67}{space 3} .4441771
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1048619{col 26}{space 2} .0437894{col 37}{space 1}   -2.39{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}-.1906876{col 67}{space 3}-.0190362
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1176131{col 26}{space 2} .1085175{col 37}{space 1}   -1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.278{col 54}{space 4}-.3303035{col 67}{space 3} .0950773
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3942651{col 26}{space 2} .5696415{col 37}{space 1}    0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.489{col 54}{space 4}-.7222117{col 67}{space 3} 1.510742
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0015908{col 26}{space 2}  .150731{col 37}{space 1}   -0.01{col 46}{space 3}0.992{col 54}{space 4}-.2970181{col 67}{space 3} .2938366
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0562505{col 26}{space 2} .0791658{col 37}{space 1}    0.71{col 46}{space 3}0.477{col 54}{space 4}-.0989115{col 67}{space 3} .2114125
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1008246{col 26}{space 2} .0711035{col 37}{space 1}    1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.156{col 54}{space 4}-.0385357{col 67}{space 3}  .240185
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1236652{col 26}{space 2} .1079312{col 37}{space 1}    1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.252{col 54}{space 4} -.087876{col 67}{space 3} .3352064
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0679095{col 26}{space 2} .0672032{col 37}{space 1}   -1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.312{col 54}{space 4}-.1996252{col 67}{space 3} .0638063
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0021304{col 26}{space 2} .0011786{col 37}{space 1}   -1.81{col 46}{space 3}0.071{col 54}{space 4}-.0044405{col 67}{space 3} .0001797
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0021116{col 26}{space 2} .0010593{col 37}{space 1}    1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.046{col 54}{space 4} .0000354{col 67}{space 3} .0041878
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.000948{col 26}{space 2} .0004242{col 37}{space 1}   -2.23{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4}-.0017794{col 67}{space 3}-.0001166
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9008168{col 26}{space 2} 1.053495{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.393{col 54}{space 4}-1.163996{col 67}{space 3} 2.965629
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5484257{col 26}{space 2}  .088062{col 37}{space 1}   -6.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7210241{col 67}{space 3}-.3758273
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4413591{col 26}{space 2} .1453044{col 37}{space 1}   -3.04{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.7261506{col 67}{space 3}-.1565677
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1558084{col 26}{space 2} .1197783{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.193{col 54}{space 4}-.3905695{col 67}{space 3} .0789527
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2862145{col 26}{space 2} .0427855{col 37}{space 1}    6.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2023565{col 67}{space 3} .3700724
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0024699{col 26}{space 2} .0574262{col 37}{space 1}   -0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.966{col 54}{space 4}-.1150232{col 67}{space 3} .1100835
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9477527{col 26}{space 2} .3170128{col 37}{space 1}   -2.99{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-1.569086{col 67}{space 3}-.3264191
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2633793{col 26}{space 2}  .059498{col 37}{space 1}    4.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1467654{col 67}{space 3} .3799933
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0271159{col 26}{space 2} .0389362{col 37}{space 1}    0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.486{col 54}{space 4}-.0491977{col 67}{space 3} .1034294
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1813326{col 26}{space 2} .0354713{col 37}{space 1}   -5.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2508551{col 67}{space 3}  -.11181
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1251413{col 26}{space 2}  .052738{col 37}{space 1}   -2.37{col 46}{space 3}0.018{col 54}{space 4}-.2285058{col 67}{space 3}-.0217767
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0656809{col 26}{space 2} .0160735{col 37}{space 1}    4.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0341775{col 67}{space 3} .0971843
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0011192{col 26}{space 2} .0006891{col 37}{space 1}    1.62{col 46}{space 3}0.104{col 54}{space 4}-.0002314{col 67}{space 3} .0024697
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0006889{col 26}{space 2} .0004609{col 37}{space 1}   -1.49{col 46}{space 3}0.135{col 54}{space 4}-.0015923{col 67}{space 3} .0002146
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001928{col 26}{space 2} .0001377{col 37}{space 1}    1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.161{col 54}{space 4}-.0000771{col 67}{space 3} .0004628
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6929782{col 26}{space 2} .5393932{col 37}{space 1}    1.28{col 46}{space 3}0.199{col 54}{space 4} -.364213{col 67}{space 3} 1.750169
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.13302{col 26}{space 2} .5775818{col 37}{space 1}   -1.96{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4} -2.26506{col 67}{space 3}-.0009808
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.8120505{col 26}{space 2} .1967094{col 54}{space 4}-.9786711{col 67}{space 3}-.0009808
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.85   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0498
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Model 3
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = i.closed i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-164.71826}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-146.14034}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.15477}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.14551}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-145.14551}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-872.89358}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-704.89528}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-684.93984}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.87018}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.83417}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.83411}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-166.35532}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-143.05879}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.10432}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.09488}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.09488}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-850.70334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-841.42269}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-831.02336}  (not concave)
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -829.6361}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.89827}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.88086}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.09705}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.07672}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.07353}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.07353}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3474
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3234
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      240

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}12{txt})      = {res}    33.44
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-826.0735                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0008

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2255819{col 26}{space 2} .3013232{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.454{col 54}{space 4}-.8161644{col 67}{space 3} .3650006
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0958085{col 26}{space 2} .0393592{col 37}{space 1}   -2.43{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-.1729513{col 67}{space 3}-.0186658
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1386192{col 26}{space 2} .1119479{col 37}{space 1}   -1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.216{col 54}{space 4}-.3580331{col 67}{space 3} .0807946
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3362097{col 26}{space 2}  .583976{col 37}{space 1}    0.58{col 46}{space 3}0.565{col 54}{space 4}-.8083622{col 67}{space 3} 1.480782
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .028549{col 26}{space 2}  .152606{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.852{col 54}{space 4}-.2705532{col 67}{space 3} .3276512
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0565275{col 26}{space 2} .0819898{col 37}{space 1}    0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.491{col 54}{space 4}-.1041695{col 67}{space 3} .2172245
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0933855{col 26}{space 2} .0726472{col 37}{space 1}    1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.199{col 54}{space 4}-.0490004{col 67}{space 3} .2357714
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1272671{col 26}{space 2} .1135624{col 37}{space 1}    1.12{col 46}{space 3}0.262{col 54}{space 4}-.0953112{col 67}{space 3} .3498454
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0557634{col 26}{space 2} .0696102{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.423{col 54}{space 4}-.1921969{col 67}{space 3}   .08067
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0022271{col 26}{space 2}  .001225{col 37}{space 1}   -1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.069{col 54}{space 4} -.004628{col 67}{space 3} .0001739
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0022065{col 26}{space 2} .0010954{col 37}{space 1}    2.01{col 46}{space 3}0.044{col 54}{space 4} .0000595{col 67}{space 3} .0043535
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.000989{col 26}{space 2} .0004353{col 37}{space 1}   -2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-.0018421{col 67}{space 3}-.0001358
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9349794{col 26}{space 2} 1.116566{col 37}{space 1}    0.84{col 46}{space 3}0.402{col 54}{space 4} -1.25345{col 67}{space 3} 3.123409
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6794789{col 26}{space 2}  .194409{col 37}{space 1}   -3.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.060514{col 67}{space 3}-.2984442
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6561315{col 26}{space 2} .0937259{col 37}{space 1}   -7.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8398308{col 67}{space 3}-.4724321
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4106419{col 26}{space 2} .1506776{col 37}{space 1}   -2.73{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-.7059645{col 67}{space 3}-.1153193
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0941277{col 26}{space 2} .1200612{col 37}{space 1}   -0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.433{col 54}{space 4}-.3294432{col 67}{space 3} .1411879
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2804317{col 26}{space 2}  .042836{col 37}{space 1}    6.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1964747{col 67}{space 3} .3643888
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0010131{col 26}{space 2} .0588007{col 37}{space 1}   -0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.986{col 54}{space 4}-.1162604{col 67}{space 3} .1142342
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9611322{col 26}{space 2} .3234987{col 37}{space 1}   -2.97{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-1.595178{col 67}{space 3}-.3270864
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2554887{col 26}{space 2} .0601999{col 37}{space 1}    4.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1374991{col 67}{space 3} .3734784
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0309308{col 26}{space 2} .0391016{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.429{col 54}{space 4}-.0457069{col 67}{space 3} .1075685
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1645216{col 26}{space 2} .0360061{col 37}{space 1}   -4.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2350923{col 67}{space 3}-.0939509
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.137869{col 26}{space 2} .0527856{col 37}{space 1}   -2.61{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.2413268{col 67}{space 3}-.0344112
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0595683{col 26}{space 2} .0157812{col 37}{space 1}    3.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0286378{col 67}{space 3} .0904988
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0011007{col 26}{space 2} .0006983{col 37}{space 1}    1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.115{col 54}{space 4}-.0002679{col 67}{space 3} .0024694
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0007108{col 26}{space 2} .0004664{col 37}{space 1}   -1.52{col 46}{space 3}0.128{col 54}{space 4} -.001625{col 67}{space 3} .0002034
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002156{col 26}{space 2}   .00014{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.123{col 54}{space 4}-.0000587{col 67}{space 3} .0004899
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8037319{col 26}{space 2} .5359548{col 37}{space 1}    1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.134{col 54}{space 4}-.2467203{col 67}{space 3} 1.854184
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9829646{col 26}{space 2} .4796139{col 37}{space 1}   -2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4}-1.922991{col 67}{space 3}-.0429386
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.7543464{col 26}{space 2} .2066951{col 54}{space 4} -.958163{col 67}{space 3}-.0429122
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    4.20   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0404
{txt}
{com}. 
. *test of coefficient difference for legislature
. test [coup_a]1.closed=[coup_a]2.closed

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}[coup_a]1.closed - [coup_a]2.closed = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.02
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.8928
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Obtain marginal effects from selection equation
. margins, at(closed=(0 1 2)) predict(psel)
{res}
{txt}Predictive margins{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(coup_a), predict(psel)}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:closed}{space 10}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:closed}{space 10}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:closed}{space 10}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1285574{col 26}{space 2} .0130402{col 37}{space 1}    9.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1029991{col 67}{space 3} .1541157
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0429288{col 26}{space 2} .0133661{col 37}{space 1}    3.21{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0167318{col 67}{space 3} .0691258
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0447803{col 26}{space 2} .0047824{col 37}{space 1}    9.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .035407{col 67}{space 3} .0541536
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, recast(scatter) xscale(range(0 2)) scheme(s1mono) 

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: closed{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. margins, at(defacto2=(0 1 2)) predict(psel)
{res}
{txt}Predictive margins{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(coup_a), predict(psel)}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:defacto2}{space 8}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:defacto2}{space 8}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:defacto2}{space 8}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0887717{col 26}{space 2} .0127197{col 37}{space 1}    6.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0638417{col 67}{space 3} .1137018
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0462384{col 26}{space 2} .0085553{col 37}{space 1}    5.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0294704{col 67}{space 3} .0630064
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0770456{col 26}{space 2} .0069922{col 37}{space 1}   11.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0633411{col 67}{space 3} .0907501
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, recast(scatter) xscale(range(0 2)) scheme(s1mono)

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: defacto2{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Appendix
. 
. use "coups_RAP.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}.  
.  ****TABLE A1***
.  
.  ** 1. replication of Bove and Rivera (2015)
.   **Model A1, Table 1
. probit hcoup  autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc sumhcoups, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-561.91712}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-459.15719}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-444.02988}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-443.78024}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-443.77978}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-443.77978}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    182.14
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-443.77978{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2102

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}       hcoup{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9078169{col 26}{space 2} .0981793{col 37}{space 1}   -9.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.100245{col 67}{space 3} -.715389
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1005033{col 26}{space 2} .0572778{col 37}{space 1}    1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.079{col 54}{space 4}-.0117592{col 67}{space 3} .2127657
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0439617{col 26}{space 2} .0594898{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.460{col 54}{space 4}-.1605597{col 67}{space 3} .0726362
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9639392{col 26}{space 2} .3651983{col 37}{space 1}   -2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4}-1.679715{col 67}{space 3}-.2481637
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3670553{col 26}{space 2}  .074319{col 37}{space 1}    4.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2213928{col 67}{space 3} .5127179
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0438162{col 26}{space 2} .0489948{col 37}{space 1}    0.89{col 46}{space 3}0.371{col 54}{space 4}-.0522119{col 67}{space 3} .1398443
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1795733{col 26}{space 2} .0380104{col 37}{space 1}   -4.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2540723{col 67}{space 3}-.1050743
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1423713{col 26}{space 2} .0617114{col 37}{space 1}   -2.31{col 46}{space 3}0.021{col 54}{space 4}-.2633235{col 67}{space 3}-.0214192
{txt}{space 3}sumhcoups {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0867696{col 26}{space 2} .0129462{col 37}{space 1}    6.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0613954{col 67}{space 3} .1121437
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3073499{col 26}{space 2} .5312949{col 37}{space 1}    0.58{col 46}{space 3}0.563{col 54}{space 4}-.7339691{col 67}{space 3} 1.348669
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. // Model A2, Table 1 (with pre_h)
. probit hcoup  autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-561.91712}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-469.16025}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-455.28897}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-455.13953}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-455.13939}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-455.13939}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    151.54
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-455.13939{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1900

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}       hcoup{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8894009{col 26}{space 2} .0964755{col 37}{space 1}   -9.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.078489{col 67}{space 3}-.7003123
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .109112{col 26}{space 2} .0615591{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.076{col 54}{space 4}-.0115417{col 67}{space 3} .2297656
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0231754{col 26}{space 2} .0575786{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.687{col 54}{space 4}-.1360275{col 67}{space 3} .0896766
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9446662{col 26}{space 2}  .364114{col 37}{space 1}   -2.59{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-1.658317{col 67}{space 3}-.2310159
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3385887{col 26}{space 2} .0715763{col 37}{space 1}    4.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1983017{col 67}{space 3} .4788757
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0183622{col 26}{space 2} .0478282{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.701{col 54}{space 4}-.0753793{col 67}{space 3} .1121038
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1842905{col 26}{space 2} .0349491{col 37}{space 1}   -5.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2527896{col 67}{space 3}-.1157915
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1071375{col 26}{space 2} .0568918{col 37}{space 1}   -1.88{col 46}{space 3}0.060{col 54}{space 4}-.2186435{col 67}{space 3} .0043684
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0740847{col 26}{space 2} .0479988{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.123{col 54}{space 4}-.0199912{col 67}{space 3} .1681606
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2734534{col 26}{space 2} .5695192{col 37}{space 1}    0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.631{col 54}{space 4}-.8427838{col 67}{space 3} 1.389691
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. **Model A3 **Time controls for B&R and corrected sum of previous successful coups
. probit hcoup  autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-561.91712}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-468.47585}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-453.87174}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-453.51598}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-453.51369}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-453.51369}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}    156.65
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-453.51369{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1929

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}       hcoup{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8541871{col 26}{space 2} .1045161{col 37}{space 1}   -8.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.059035{col 67}{space 3}-.6493393
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .102889{col 26}{space 2} .0597767{col 37}{space 1}    1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.085{col 54}{space 4}-.0142711{col 67}{space 3} .2200491
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0116528{col 26}{space 2} .0571859{col 37}{space 1}   -0.20{col 46}{space 3}0.839{col 54}{space 4}-.1237352{col 67}{space 3} .1004295
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9653467{col 26}{space 2} .3605095{col 37}{space 1}   -2.68{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}-1.671932{col 67}{space 3}-.2587611
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3491242{col 26}{space 2} .0720195{col 37}{space 1}    4.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2079686{col 67}{space 3} .4902798
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0283848{col 26}{space 2} .0471954{col 37}{space 1}    0.60{col 46}{space 3}0.548{col 54}{space 4}-.0641164{col 67}{space 3}  .120886
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1749073{col 26}{space 2} .0353873{col 37}{space 1}   -4.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2442652{col 67}{space 3}-.1055494
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1086058{col 26}{space 2}   .05624{col 37}{space 1}   -1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.053{col 54}{space 4}-.2188343{col 67}{space 3} .0016226
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .061145{col 26}{space 2} .0491142{col 37}{space 1}    1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.213{col 54}{space 4} -.035117{col 67}{space 3} .1574071
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001306{col 26}{space 2} .0005749{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.820{col 54}{space 4}-.0009961{col 67}{space 3} .0012573
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000986{col 26}{space 2} .0004465{col 37}{space 1}   -0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.825{col 54}{space 4}-.0009737{col 67}{space 3} .0007766
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000398{col 26}{space 2} .0001306{col 37}{space 1}    0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.760{col 54}{space 4}-.0002161{col 67}{space 3} .0002957
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2143662{col 26}{space 2} .5719473{col 37}{space 1}    0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.708{col 54}{space 4}-.9066298{col 67}{space 3} 1.335362
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. **Model A4** Success B&R
. probit hcoup i.closed Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-561.91712}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -461.4493}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-447.63636}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-447.49438}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-447.49425}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-447.49425}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}    164.19
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-447.49425{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2036

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}       hcoup{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7825304{col 26}{space 2} .2219059{col 37}{space 1}   -3.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.217458{col 67}{space 3}-.3476028
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9862853{col 26}{space 2} .0997534{col 37}{space 1}   -9.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.181798{col 67}{space 3}-.7907722
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .101196{col 26}{space 2} .0597905{col 37}{space 1}    1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.091{col 54}{space 4}-.0159913{col 67}{space 3} .2183832
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0174673{col 26}{space 2} .0589732{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.767{col 54}{space 4}-.1330527{col 67}{space 3} .0981181
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9608338{col 26}{space 2} .3696205{col 37}{space 1}   -2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-1.685277{col 67}{space 3}-.2363909
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3423792{col 26}{space 2} .0709141{col 37}{space 1}    4.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2033902{col 67}{space 3} .4813682
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0276414{col 26}{space 2} .0483367{col 37}{space 1}    0.57{col 46}{space 3}0.567{col 54}{space 4}-.0670969{col 67}{space 3} .1223797
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1644132{col 26}{space 2} .0348624{col 37}{space 1}   -4.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2327422{col 67}{space 3}-.0960843
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1320392{col 26}{space 2} .0585549{col 37}{space 1}   -2.25{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4}-.2468047{col 67}{space 3}-.0172737
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0581581{col 26}{space 2} .0498902{col 37}{space 1}    1.17{col 46}{space 3}0.244{col 54}{space 4}-.0396249{col 67}{space 3} .1559412
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4973892{col 26}{space 2} .5915217{col 37}{space 1}    0.84{col 46}{space 3}0.400{col 54}{space 4}-.6619721{col 67}{space 3}  1.65675
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. test 0.closed=1.closed

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}[hcoup]0b.closed - [hcoup]1.closed = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   12.44
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0004
{txt}
{com}. test 1.closed=2.closed

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}[hcoup]1.closed - [hcoup]2.closed = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.96
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.3281
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ***TABLE A2*****
. **Alternative specifications of the Heckman probit
. 
. **Model A5. Naked model
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 pre_h h_sp*, select (coup_a = i.closed i.defacto2 pre_a a_*)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197.11212}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-179.21301}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-177.97551}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-177.91122}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-177.91102}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-177.91102}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1045.9075}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-903.03901}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-893.03739}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-892.53531}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-892.53099}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-892.53099}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res} -1070.442

{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-199.62639}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-175.50462}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-174.59696}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-174.57254}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-174.57254}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1098.2243}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1094.7008}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1074.3927}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1068.5681}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1067.3407}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1067.2085}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1067.2033}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1067.2032}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     4147
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3859
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      288

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}5{txt})       = {res}    15.93
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-1067.203                      {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0070

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2234921{col 26}{space 2} .2367381{col 37}{space 1}   -0.94{col 46}{space 3}0.345{col 54}{space 4}-.6874902{col 67}{space 3} .2405059
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0407724{col 26}{space 2} .0439059{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.353{col 54}{space 4}-.1268263{col 67}{space 3} .0452816
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0022585{col 26}{space 2} .0009383{col 37}{space 1}   -2.41{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4}-.0040975{col 67}{space 3}-.0004194
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .002095{col 26}{space 2} .0009099{col 37}{space 1}    2.30{col 46}{space 3}0.021{col 54}{space 4} .0003116{col 67}{space 3} .0038785
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0008813{col 26}{space 2} .0004122{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4}-.0016892{col 67}{space 3}-.0000734
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.290971{col 26}{space 2} .2135753{col 37}{space 1}    6.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8723709{col 67}{space 3} 1.709571
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8525877{col 26}{space 2} .1572527{col 37}{space 1}   -5.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.160797{col 67}{space 3}-.5443781
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7424832{col 26}{space 2} .0759653{col 37}{space 1}   -9.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8913724{col 67}{space 3}-.5935939
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3239348{col 26}{space 2} .0981366{col 37}{space 1}   -3.30{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} -.516279{col 67}{space 3}-.1315905
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0797376{col 26}{space 2} .0862929{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.355{col 54}{space 4}-.0893934{col 67}{space 3} .2488687
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0455149{col 26}{space 2}  .014023{col 37}{space 1}    3.25{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0180304{col 67}{space 3} .0729994
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0013907{col 26}{space 2} .0005354{col 37}{space 1}    2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .0003412{col 67}{space 3} .0024401
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0008291{col 26}{space 2} .0003775{col 37}{space 1}   -2.20{col 46}{space 3}0.028{col 54}{space 4} -.001569{col 67}{space 3}-.0000891
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002149{col 26}{space 2} .0001223{col 37}{space 1}    1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.079{col 54}{space 4}-.0000247{col 67}{space 3} .0004546
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8235778{col 26}{space 2} .0782559{col 37}{space 1}  -10.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9769565{col 67}{space 3}-.6701991
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.944122{col 26}{space 2} .3442494{col 37}{space 1}   -2.74{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-1.618838{col 67}{space 3}-.2694057
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.7371104{col 26}{space 2} .1572078{col 54}{space 4}-.9244555{col 67}{space 3}-.2630718
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0):   chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    6.48   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0109
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. // Model A6 without time controls in the success equation
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h, ///
> select (coup_a = i.closed i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-164.71826}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-149.98251}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -149.9249}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -149.9249}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-872.89358}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-704.89528}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-684.93984}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.87018}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.83417}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.83411}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-166.35532}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-148.93107}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-148.87356}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-148.87353}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-148.87353}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-833.15324}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-832.61685}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-832.60885}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-832.60873}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-832.60873}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3474
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3234
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      240

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})       = {res}    21.93
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-832.6087                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0091

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3907224{col 26}{space 2} .3454324{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.258{col 54}{space 4}-1.067758{col 67}{space 3} .2863127
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0834391{col 26}{space 2} .0390543{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4}-.1599841{col 67}{space 3} -.006894
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1358863{col 26}{space 2} .1180374{col 37}{space 1}   -1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.250{col 54}{space 4}-.3672353{col 67}{space 3} .0954628
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0976498{col 26}{space 2} .6945942{col 37}{space 1}    0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.888{col 54}{space 4} -1.26373{col 67}{space 3} 1.459029
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1303154{col 26}{space 2} .1752731{col 37}{space 1}    0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-.2132135{col 67}{space 3} .4738444
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0911422{col 26}{space 2} .0854912{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.286{col 54}{space 4}-.0764176{col 67}{space 3} .2587019
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0732002{col 26}{space 2} .0829688{col 37}{space 1}    0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.378{col 54}{space 4}-.0894157{col 67}{space 3}  .235816
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1090089{col 26}{space 2} .1210187{col 37}{space 1}    0.90{col 46}{space 3}0.368{col 54}{space 4}-.1281835{col 67}{space 3} .3462012
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0745548{col 26}{space 2} .0796009{col 37}{space 1}   -0.94{col 46}{space 3}0.349{col 54}{space 4}-.2305697{col 67}{space 3} .0814602
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.01758{col 26}{space 2} 1.149844{col 37}{space 1}    0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.376{col 54}{space 4}-1.236074{col 67}{space 3} 3.271233
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7159279{col 26}{space 2} .1936968{col 37}{space 1}   -3.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.095567{col 67}{space 3}-.3362891
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6733223{col 26}{space 2} .0945339{col 37}{space 1}   -7.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8586054{col 67}{space 3}-.4880393
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3959797{col 26}{space 2} .1623921{col 37}{space 1}   -2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-.7142624{col 67}{space 3} -.077697
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0734445{col 26}{space 2} .1181575{col 37}{space 1}   -0.62{col 46}{space 3}0.534{col 54}{space 4}-.3050288{col 67}{space 3} .1581399
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2844216{col 26}{space 2} .0437972{col 37}{space 1}    6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1985807{col 67}{space 3} .3702625
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0023966{col 26}{space 2} .0591169{col 37}{space 1}   -0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.968{col 54}{space 4}-.1182637{col 67}{space 3} .1134705
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9660224{col 26}{space 2} .3248503{col 37}{space 1}   -2.97{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-1.602717{col 67}{space 3}-.3293276
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2534967{col 26}{space 2} .0604195{col 37}{space 1}    4.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1350767{col 67}{space 3} .3719167
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0292919{col 26}{space 2} .0393002{col 37}{space 1}    0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.456{col 54}{space 4}-.0477351{col 67}{space 3}  .106319
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1659989{col 26}{space 2} .0361959{col 37}{space 1}   -4.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2369415{col 67}{space 3}-.0950563
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1374375{col 26}{space 2} .0527252{col 37}{space 1}   -2.61{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.2407769{col 67}{space 3}-.0340981
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .062732{col 26}{space 2} .0159844{col 37}{space 1}    3.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0314031{col 67}{space 3} .0940608
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009101{col 26}{space 2} .0007028{col 37}{space 1}    1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.195{col 54}{space 4}-.0004673{col 67}{space 3} .0022875
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0005861{col 26}{space 2} .0004658{col 37}{space 1}   -1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.208{col 54}{space 4} -.001499{col 67}{space 3} .0003268
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001792{col 26}{space 2} .0001372{col 37}{space 1}    1.31{col 46}{space 3}0.192{col 54}{space 4}-.0000897{col 67}{space 3} .0004481
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7882878{col 26}{space 2} .5390392{col 37}{space 1}    1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.144{col 54}{space 4}-.2682096{col 67}{space 3} 1.844785
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6006926{col 26}{space 2} .4715465{col 37}{space 1}   -1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.203{col 54}{space 4}-1.524907{col 67}{space 3} .3235216
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5375422{col 26}{space 2} .3352924{col 54}{space 4} -.909549{col 67}{space 3} .3126877
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    1.62   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.2027
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***TABLE A3****
. 
. ** Model A7. coup success from Powell and Thyne
. heckprob coup_s autleg3 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_s s_**, ///
> select (coup_a = i.closed i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode)

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-168.18571}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-143.76929}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.08939}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.07249}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.07249}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-880.89347}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-710.75896}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-690.41578}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-689.31093}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -689.2729}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-689.27284}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-168.43476}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.81335}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-142.06648}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.97665}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-141.97664}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-831.25919}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-831.19607}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-831.19424}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-831.19424}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3477
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3234
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      243

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}12{txt})      = {res}    23.59
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-831.1942                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0231

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_s       {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8392898{col 26}{space 2} .6809956{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.218{col 54}{space 4}-2.174017{col 67}{space 3} .4954371
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1474217{col 26}{space 2} .2340452{col 37}{space 1}    0.63{col 46}{space 3}0.529{col 54}{space 4}-.3112986{col 67}{space 3} .6061419
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1065547{col 26}{space 2} .1757119{col 37}{space 1}   -0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.544{col 54}{space 4}-.4509437{col 67}{space 3} .2378344
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.484046{col 26}{space 2} .7216505{col 37}{space 1}    2.06{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4} .0696372{col 67}{space 3} 2.898455
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .067114{col 26}{space 2} .2942125{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.820{col 54}{space 4}-.5095319{col 67}{space 3} .6437598
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0353448{col 26}{space 2}  .128268{col 37}{space 1}    0.28{col 46}{space 3}0.783{col 54}{space 4}-.2160558{col 67}{space 3} .2867454
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0747746{col 26}{space 2} .1604338{col 37}{space 1}   -0.47{col 46}{space 3}0.641{col 54}{space 4} -.389219{col 67}{space 3} .2396699
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0236722{col 26}{space 2}  .179963{col 37}{space 1}    0.13{col 46}{space 3}0.895{col 54}{space 4}-.3290489{col 67}{space 3} .3763932
{txt}{space 7}pre_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0669506{col 26}{space 2} .0947029{col 37}{space 1}   -0.71{col 46}{space 3}0.480{col 54}{space 4} -.252565{col 67}{space 3} .1186637
{txt}{space 7}s_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007447{col 26}{space 2} .0009513{col 37}{space 1}    0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.434{col 54}{space 4}-.0011198{col 67}{space 3} .0026091
{txt}{space 7}s_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0007452{col 26}{space 2} .0009123{col 37}{space 1}   -0.82{col 46}{space 3}0.414{col 54}{space 4}-.0025333{col 67}{space 3} .0010428
{txt}{space 7}s_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003031{col 26}{space 2}  .000384{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.430{col 54}{space 4}-.0004495{col 67}{space 3} .0010557
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.58331{col 26}{space 2} 1.451205{col 37}{space 1}    1.09{col 46}{space 3}0.275{col 54}{space 4}-1.260999{col 67}{space 3} 4.427619
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7352343{col 26}{space 2} .1962797{col 37}{space 1}   -3.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.119935{col 67}{space 3}-.3505332
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6756849{col 26}{space 2}  .096765{col 37}{space 1}   -6.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8653409{col 67}{space 3}-.4860289
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3904543{col 26}{space 2} .2270954{col 37}{space 1}   -1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.086{col 54}{space 4}-.8355532{col 67}{space 3} .0546446
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0606764{col 26}{space 2}  .140356{col 37}{space 1}   -0.43{col 46}{space 3}0.666{col 54}{space 4}-.3357692{col 67}{space 3} .2144163
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2809944{col 26}{space 2} .0433667{col 37}{space 1}    6.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1959973{col 67}{space 3} .3659916
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0028165{col 26}{space 2} .0599887{col 37}{space 1}    0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.963{col 54}{space 4}-.1147592{col 67}{space 3} .1203922
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9530627{col 26}{space 2} .3277978{col 37}{space 1}   -2.91{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4}-1.595535{col 67}{space 3}-.3105907
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2608832{col 26}{space 2} .0606162{col 37}{space 1}    4.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1420776{col 67}{space 3} .3796889
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0329169{col 26}{space 2} .0403558{col 37}{space 1}    0.82{col 46}{space 3}0.415{col 54}{space 4} -.046179{col 67}{space 3} .1120127
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1692992{col 26}{space 2} .0358951{col 37}{space 1}   -4.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2396522{col 67}{space 3}-.0989462
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1475592{col 26}{space 2} .0535119{col 37}{space 1}   -2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}-.2524406{col 67}{space 3}-.0426778
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .063824{col 26}{space 2} .0161273{col 37}{space 1}    3.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0322151{col 67}{space 3} .0954329
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0008182{col 26}{space 2} .0008492{col 37}{space 1}    0.96{col 46}{space 3}0.335{col 54}{space 4}-.0008462{col 67}{space 3} .0024826
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.000536{col 26}{space 2} .0005573{col 37}{space 1}   -0.96{col 46}{space 3}0.336{col 54}{space 4}-.0016282{col 67}{space 3} .0005563
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001732{col 26}{space 2} .0001618{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.285{col 54}{space 4} -.000144{col 67}{space 3} .0004904
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8420866{col 26}{space 2}  .560821{col 37}{space 1}    1.50{col 46}{space 3}0.133{col 54}{space 4}-.2571023{col 67}{space 3} 1.941276
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3475447{col 26}{space 2} .9852402{col 37}{space 1}   -0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.724{col 54}{space 4} -2.27858{col 67}{space 3} 1.583491
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.3341963{col 26}{space 2} .8752015{col 54}{space 4}-.9792342{col 67}{space 3} .9191453
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    0.12   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.7243
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Alternative specifications of the probit model
. 
. ***TABLE A4****
. ** Model A8. Attempt** Same as model 2 from main text, but more IV legislature
. probit coup_a i.closed i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-880.89347}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-710.75896}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-690.41578}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-689.31093}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -689.2729}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-689.27284}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3477
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}15{txt}){col 67}= {res}    409.48
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-689.27284{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2175

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}      coup_a{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}closed {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7293214{col 26}{space 2} .1973275{col 37}{space 1}   -3.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.116076{col 67}{space 3}-.3425666
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6794286{col 26}{space 2} .0943878{col 37}{space 1}   -7.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8644254{col 67}{space 3}-.4944319
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3527233{col 26}{space 2} .1582513{col 37}{space 1}   -2.23{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-.6628903{col 67}{space 3}-.0425564
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0412746{col 26}{space 2} .1104473{col 37}{space 1}   -0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.709{col 54}{space 4}-.2577472{col 67}{space 3}  .175198
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2806499{col 26}{space 2} .0440168{col 37}{space 1}    6.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1943786{col 67}{space 3} .3669212
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0041275{col 26}{space 2} .0584956{col 37}{space 1}    0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.944{col 54}{space 4}-.1105218{col 67}{space 3} .1187768
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9642214{col 26}{space 2}   .33029{col 37}{space 1}   -2.92{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4}-1.611578{col 67}{space 3}-.3168648
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2630026{col 26}{space 2} .0613822{col 37}{space 1}    4.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1426957{col 67}{space 3} .3833095
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0324742{col 26}{space 2}  .040531{col 37}{space 1}    0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.423{col 54}{space 4}-.0469651{col 67}{space 3} .1119135
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.169133{col 26}{space 2} .0355035{col 37}{space 1}   -4.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2387186{col 67}{space 3}-.0995474
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1475083{col 26}{space 2} .0527424{col 37}{space 1}   -2.80{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-.2508816{col 67}{space 3} -.044135
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0644984{col 26}{space 2} .0152818{col 37}{space 1}    4.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0345466{col 67}{space 3} .0944503
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009496{col 26}{space 2} .0006988{col 37}{space 1}    1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.174{col 54}{space 4}-.0004201{col 67}{space 3} .0023192
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0006267{col 26}{space 2}  .000467{col 37}{space 1}   -1.34{col 46}{space 3}0.180{col 54}{space 4}-.0015421{col 67}{space 3} .0002887
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000201{col 26}{space 2} .0001419{col 37}{space 1}    1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.157{col 54}{space 4}-.0000772{col 67}{space 3} .0004791
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8195167{col 26}{space 2} .5293456{col 37}{space 1}    1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.122{col 54}{space 4}-.2179815{col 67}{space 3} 1.857015
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 0 failures and 1 success completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. test 0.closed=1.closed

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}[coup_a]0b.closed - [coup_a]1.closed = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   13.66
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0002
{txt}
{com}. test 1.closed=2.closed

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}[coup_a]1.closed - [coup_a]2.closed = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.08
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.7767
{txt}
{com}. 
.  **Model A9. Accounting for regime type from Geddes
. probit coup_a legis2 i.defacto2 Purges gwf_party gwf_military gwf_personal lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-880.89347}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-705.37157}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-684.58635}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.52031}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.48164}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-683.48158}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3477
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}17{txt}){col 67}= {res}    413.38
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-683.48158{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2241

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}      coup_a{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}legis2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6824463{col 26}{space 2} .1032524{col 37}{space 1}   -6.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8848173{col 67}{space 3}-.4800753
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4060377{col 26}{space 2} .1644205{col 37}{space 1}   -2.47{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4} -.728296{col 67}{space 3}-.0837794
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1013909{col 26}{space 2} .1201384{col 37}{space 1}   -0.84{col 46}{space 3}0.399{col 54}{space 4}-.3368579{col 67}{space 3}  .134076
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2789414{col 26}{space 2} .0447423{col 37}{space 1}    6.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .191248{col 67}{space 3} .3666348
{txt}{space 3}gwf_party {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4260972{col 26}{space 2} .2020564{col 37}{space 1}    2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}  .030074{col 67}{space 3} .8221203
{txt}gwf_military {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5467002{col 26}{space 2}  .198381{col 37}{space 1}    2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .1578805{col 67}{space 3} .9355198
{txt}gwf_personal {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5439255{col 26}{space 2} .2013673{col 37}{space 1}    2.70{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .1492529{col 67}{space 3} .9385982
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0380905{col 26}{space 2} .0627447{col 37}{space 1}    0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.544{col 54}{space 4}-.0848868{col 67}{space 3} .1610679
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9956474{col 26}{space 2} .3337311{col 37}{space 1}   -2.98{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-1.649748{col 67}{space 3}-.3415464
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2509097{col 26}{space 2} .0638102{col 37}{space 1}    3.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1258439{col 67}{space 3} .3759754
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0128053{col 26}{space 2} .0408094{col 37}{space 1}    0.31{col 46}{space 3}0.754{col 54}{space 4}-.0671796{col 67}{space 3} .0927902
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1680977{col 26}{space 2}   .03636{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.239362{col 67}{space 3}-.0968333
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1480308{col 26}{space 2} .0494212{col 37}{space 1}   -3.00{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.2448945{col 67}{space 3}-.0511671
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0558854{col 26}{space 2} .0164175{col 37}{space 1}    3.40{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0237078{col 67}{space 3}  .088063
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000759{col 26}{space 2} .0007039{col 37}{space 1}    1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.281{col 54}{space 4}-.0006207{col 67}{space 3} .0021386
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0005262{col 26}{space 2} .0004726{col 37}{space 1}   -1.11{col 46}{space 3}0.266{col 54}{space 4}-.0014525{col 67}{space 3} .0004001
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001817{col 26}{space 2} .0001449{col 37}{space 1}    1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.210{col 54}{space 4}-.0001023{col 67}{space 3} .0004657
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1465362{col 26}{space 2} .6151057{col 37}{space 1}    0.24{col 46}{space 3}0.812{col 54}{space 4}-1.059049{col 67}{space 3} 1.352121
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 0 failures and 1 success completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. **TABLE A5
. ** Model A9. Accounting for structural coup-proofing.
. probit coup_a legis2 i.defacto2 effective_number eff2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*, cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-536.00952}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -424.4342}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -411.6363}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-410.86467}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-410.84089}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-410.84087}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      2393
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}16{txt}){col 67}= {res}    267.63
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-410.84087{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2335

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:112} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 1}          coup_a{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 10}legis2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7351818{col 30}{space 2}  .125768{col 41}{space 1}   -5.85{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.9816825{col 71}{space 3}-.4886811
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 8}defacto2 {c |}
{space 14}1  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2563746{col 30}{space 2} .1552547{col 41}{space 1}   -1.65{col 50}{space 3}0.099{col 58}{space 4}-.5606682{col 71}{space 3}  .047919
{txt}{space 14}2  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.068557{col 30}{space 2} .1576617{col 41}{space 1}   -0.43{col 50}{space 3}0.664{col 58}{space 4}-.3775683{col 71}{space 3} .2404543
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
effective_number {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.5333571{col 30}{space 2} .3956505{col 41}{space 1}   -1.35{col 50}{space 3}0.178{col 58}{space 4}-1.308818{col 71}{space 3} .2421036
{txt}{space 12}eff2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .151766{col 30}{space 2} .0904569{col 41}{space 1}    1.68{col 50}{space 3}0.093{col 58}{space 4}-.0255262{col 71}{space 3} .3290582
{txt}{space 10}Purges {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3086907{col 30}{space 2} .0719393{col 41}{space 1}    4.29{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1676922{col 71}{space 3} .4496892
{txt}{space 9}lrgdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0438887{col 30}{space 2} .0621009{col 41}{space 1}   -0.71{col 50}{space 3}0.480{col 58}{space 4}-.1656042{col 71}{space 3} .0778268
{txt}{space 10}lGDPch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -1.44386{col 30}{space 2} .4001663{col 41}{space 1}   -3.61{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-2.228172{col 71}{space 3}-.6595489
{txt}{space 4}linstability {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2414146{col 30}{space 2} .0778855{col 41}{space 1}    3.10{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4} .0887619{col 71}{space 3} .3940674
{txt}{space 8}lmilexch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .060123{col 30}{space 2} .0539572{col 41}{space 1}    1.11{col 50}{space 3}0.265{col 58}{space 4}-.0456311{col 71}{space 3} .1658771
{txt}{space 9}lmilper {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1176772{col 30}{space 2} .0397613{col 41}{space 1}   -2.96{col 50}{space 3}0.003{col 58}{space 4}-.1956079{col 71}{space 3}-.0397464
{txt}{space 8}lmilexpc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.222237{col 30}{space 2} .0615519{col 41}{space 1}   -3.61{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.3428765{col 71}{space 3}-.1015974
{txt}{space 11}pre_a {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0708058{col 30}{space 2} .0202616{col 41}{space 1}    3.49{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0310939{col 71}{space 3} .1105178
{txt}{space 11}a_sp1 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0005553{col 30}{space 2} .0008051{col 41}{space 1}    0.69{col 50}{space 3}0.490{col 58}{space 4}-.0010227{col 71}{space 3} .0021333
{txt}{space 11}a_sp2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0004062{col 30}{space 2} .0005301{col 41}{space 1}   -0.77{col 50}{space 3}0.443{col 58}{space 4}-.0014452{col 71}{space 3} .0006327
{txt}{space 11}a_sp3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .000158{col 30}{space 2} .0001587{col 41}{space 1}    1.00{col 50}{space 3}0.319{col 58}{space 4} -.000153{col 71}{space 3} .0004689
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 2.009712{col 30}{space 2} .6105747{col 41}{space 1}    3.29{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} .8130079{col 71}{space 3} 3.206417
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. **Table A6. Summary statistics (Table 1)
. outreg2 using x2.doc, label replace sum(log) keep(coup_a hcoup autleg3 closed defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a pre_h) 

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 7}ccode {c |}{res}      4301    508.3246     215.741         40        850
{txt}{space 8}year {c |}{res}      4301    1979.487    15.10077       1950       2007
{txt}effective_~r {c |}{res}      2719    1.720623    .6283261          1   4.577271
{txt}fail_running {c |}{res}      4152    .9046243    1.627888          0         13
{txt}{space 1}suc_running {c |}{res}      4152    1.075626    1.670687          0         11
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 1}att_running {c |}{res}      4152     1.98025    2.915678          0         22
{txt}{space 3}ln_milper {c |}{res}      4133    10.47805    2.221987          0   15.57337
{txt}{space 2}ln_rgdppcl {c |}{res}      4111     7.76485     1.01166   5.298368   13.35703
{txt}{space 3}chgdppc_l {c |}{res}      4023    .0252432    .3618825   -.662864   20.79406
{txt}{space 9}dem {c |}{res}      3896    .0387577    .1930417          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 9}aut {c |}{res}      3896     .698922    .4587854          0          1
{txt}{space 5}dem_alt {c |}{res}      4152     .036368    .1872267          0          1
{txt}{space 5}aut_alt {c |}{res}      4152    .6558285    .4751546          0          1
{txt}{space 6}coup_a {c |}{res}      4152    .0705684    .2561334          0          1
{txt}{space 6}coup_s {c |}{res}      4152    .0322736    .1767471          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}l_cabinet {c |}{res}      3932    22.25178    10.83559          0        109
{txt}{space 8}eff2 {c |}{res}      2719    3.355192    2.561374          1   20.95141
{txt}{space 4}coup_a_y {c |}{res}      4152    13.28805    12.57304          0         57
{txt}{space 3}coup_a_y2 {c |}{res}      4152    334.6156    537.1412          0       3249
{txt}{space 3}coup_a_y3 {c |}{res}      4152    10834.84    23761.33          0     185193
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
banks_inde~l {c |}{res}      3900    1064.989    2156.051          0      51625
{txt}{space 4}ln_banks {c |}{res}      3900    3.392807    3.669131          0   10.85178
{txt}banks_milr~l {c |}{res}      4003    .0602048    .2378957          0          1
{txt}l_totalseats {c |}{res}      2431    203.6853    360.4492          1       2979
{txt}{space 4}ln_exsol {c |}{res}      3911    1.677363    1.026217          0   7.790558
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{res}      4152    7.774939    1.013359   5.298368   13.35703
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{res}      4111    .0356857    .1255382  -1.292265   3.176473
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{res}      4012    .2158524    .8843739          0         34
{txt}linstability {c |}{res}      4011    .3231312    .6486839          0   3.912023
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{res}      3906    9.117187    1.125079   1.082949   14.90247
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 5}lmilper {c |}{res}      4133    3.792552    1.694157          0   8.665786
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{res}      3646    .0546565    1.228874  -8.560884   9.427115
{txt}{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{res}      4152    .7203757    .4488687          0          1
{txt}{space 3}gwf_party {c |}{res}      4152    .5028902    .5000519          0          1
{txt}gwf_military {c |}{res}      4152    .1315029    .3379902          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
gwf_personal {c |}{res}      4152    .2449422    .4301047          0          1
{txt}{space 7}hcoup {c |}{res}      3958    .0411824     .198737          0          1
{txt}{space 3}sumhcoups {c |}{res}      4127    4.912043    2.834208          0         11
{txt}{space 7}fh_cl {c |}{res}      2680    5.336194    1.235908          2          7
{txt}{space 5}gd_ptss {c |}{res}      2267    2.852228    1.051099          1          5
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
Mlinstabil~y {c |}{res}      4141    .3191702    .3449952          0   1.646733
{txt}{space 3}Mlmilexch {c |}{res}      4152    .0555743    .2228183  -.9916615   .8108596
{txt}{space 4}Mlmilper {c |}{res}      4152    3.783004    1.590104   .4745564   8.044955
{txt}{space 3}Mlmilexpc {c |}{res}      4152    9.093429    .9061203   6.973951   11.90828
{txt}{space 4}Mlrgdppc {c |}{res}      4152    7.774427    .9378398   6.000952   10.83357
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 5}MlGDPch {c |}{res}      4152    .0353351     .020424    -.07877   .0944327
{txt}{space 6}closed {c |}{res}      4152    1.500963     .830054          0          2
{txt}{space 4}defacto2 {c |}{res}      4152    1.337669      .71542          0          2
{txt}{space 7}legis {c |}{res}      4152    .7203757    .4488687          0          1
{txt}{space 8}yr_h {c |}{res}      3958    13.81455    12.12928          0         54
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 7}pre_h {c |}{res}      4152    .7353083    1.142266          0          9
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{res}      3958   -2677.355    3938.845     -20800          0
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{res}      3958   -4886.492    7882.995     -43120          0
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{res}      3958   -5527.287    10131.64     -60291          0
{txt}{space 8}yr_s {c |}{res}      4152    15.42702    13.00603          0         57
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 7}pre_s {c |}{res}      4152    .6635356    1.168419          0          9
{txt}{space 7}s_sp1 {c |}{res}      4152   -3884.489    5534.635     -28340          0
{txt}{space 7}s_sp2 {c |}{res}      4152   -6589.836    10367.13     -55080          0
{txt}{space 7}s_sp3 {c |}{res}      4152   -6908.896    12342.39     -71280          0
{txt}{space 8}yr_a {c |}{res}      4152    12.52384    12.22796          0         57
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 7}pre_a {c |}{res}      4152    1.440992    2.025705          0         15
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{res}      4152   -1928.691    3163.812     -17982          0
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{res}      4152   -4264.901    7698.751     -45360          0
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{res}      4152   -5309.195    10790.24     -68590          0
{txt}{space 7}yr_h2 {c |}{res}      3958    337.9242    502.1502          0       2916
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 7}yr_h3 {c |}{res}      3958    10424.35       21453          0     157464
{txt}{space 7}yr_s2 {c |}{res}      4152    407.1091    581.1365          0       3249
{txt}{space 7}yr_s3 {c |}{res}      4152    13424.77    26663.02          0     185193
{txt}{space 7}yr_a2 {c |}{res}      4152    306.3336    514.8024          0       3249
{txt}{space 7}yr_a3 {c |}{res}      4152    9764.872    22757.42          0     185193
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 5}purges2 {c |}{res}      4011    .2159063    .8844776          0         34
{txt}{space 6}legis2 {c |}{res}      4152    .7805877    .4138983          0          1
{txt}{space 2}succession {c |}{res}      4003    .8683487    .3381535          0          1
{txt}{space 3}regulated {c |}{res}      4003    .1748688    .3799023          0          1
{txt}{space 1}unregulated {c |}{res}      4003    .1316513    .3381535          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}designated {c |}{res}      4003    .6934799    .4611059          0          1
{txt}SL_coupa_n~h {c |}{res}      3936    .0293713    .0757545          0          1
{txt}SL_coups_n~h {c |}{res}      3936    .0329146    .0796421          0          1
{txt}svolik_dur~n {c |}{res}      3811    9.957491    8.683485          0         46
{txt}{space 1}svolik_fail {c |}{res}      3811     .100761    .3010514          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
geddes_dur~n {c |}{res}      4279    21.50012    30.25951          1        266
{txt}{space 1}geddes_fail {c |}{res}      4279    .0488432    .2155653          0          1
{txt}geddes_party {c |}{res}      4279    .4975462    .5000524          0          1
{txt}geddes_per~l {c |}{res}      4279    .2458518    .4306414          0          1
{txt}geddes_mon~h {c |}{res}      4279    .1250292    .3307907          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
geddes_mil~y {c |}{res}      4279    .1315728    .3380652          0          1
{txt}{space 2}fl_ethfrac {c |}{res}      4279    .4378622     .292055       .001   .9250348
{txt}svolik_dur~2 {c |}{res}      3811    174.5348     283.744          0       2116
{txt}svolik_dur~3 {c |}{res}      3811      4061.1    9644.217          0      97336
{txt}regionssaf~a {c |}{res}      4279    .3577939    .4794071          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}regionmena {c |}{res}      4279    .1797149    .3839947          0          1
{txt}{space 3}regionlam {c |}{res}      4279     .132975    .3395874          0          1
{txt}{space 4}cold_war {c |}{res}      4279    .7165226    .4507388          0          1
{txt}{space 3}lag_legis {c |}{res}      4030    .7900744    .4073058          0          1
{txt}{space 1}lag_parties {c |}{res}      3858    .8535511    .3536015          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
independence {c |}{res}      4279    .3101192    .4625962          0          1
{txt}wdi_l1234a~c {c |}{res}      3017    39.62571    58.05592  -17.20014   929.4481
{txt}aidl1234_c~r {c |}{res}      3017    26.31818    57.24896  -17.20014   929.4481
{txt}leader_fai~e {c |}{res}      3811    .2314353    .7670843          0          4
{txt}regime_cha~p {c |}{res}      4279    .0207993    .1427284          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
leader_shu~p {c |}{res}      4238     .012034    .1090503          0          1
{txt}archigos_age {c |}{res}      4283     56.6862    12.22885         18         93
{txt}gwf_fail_s~e {c |}{res}      4283    .0784497    .3698217          0          3
{txt}{space 7}share {c |}{res}      2483    87.64277     19.6896          7        100
{txt}{space 9}dum {c |}{res}      4301    .8695652    .3368203          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 10}yo {c |}{res}      3004    32.56444    5.247636   15.83861   43.93237
{txt}{space 2}high_youth {c |}{res}      3004    32.56444    5.247636   15.83861   43.93237
{txt}{space 3}low_youth {c |}{res}      3004    32.56444    5.247636   15.83861   43.93237
{txt}{space 8}rycs {c |}{res}      3004     1.64379    .3025623   .6857535   2.823311
{txt}{space 3}rycs_high {c |}{res}      3004     1.64379    .3025623   .6857535   2.823311
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 4}rycs_low {c |}{res}      3004     1.64379    .3025623   .6857535   2.823311
{txt}{space 2}cooptation {c |}{res}      4152    .6849711    .4645833          0          1
{txt}single_party {c |}{res}      4301    .3613113    .4804364          0          1
{txt}{space 5}elected {c |}{res}      4051    .7106887    .4534987          0          1
{txt}SL_elected~h {c |}{res}      3967    .6350517    .3324795          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
SL_singlep~h {c |}{res}      3967    .3326794    .3743258          0          1
{txt}{space 2}dv_sartori {c |}{res}      3958    .1043456    .3958035          0          2
{txt}{space 6}mparty {c |}{res}      4301    .4650081    .4988321          0          1
{txt}{space 5}appoint {c |}{res}      4301     .058126    .2340088          0          1
{txt}SL_polyarc~h {c |}{res}      3857    .2505616    .1281211   .0147883   .8811939
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
mjo_region~2 {c |}{res}      4070    .0355421    .0417773          0        .25
{txt}{space 4}attempt2 {c |}{res}      4051    .0303629    .1716049          0          1
{txt}SL_lag_coupa {c |}{res}      3967    .0266644    .0695259          0          1

Following variable is string, not included:  
country  geddes_casename  gwf_next  gwf_casename  gwf_country  gwf_prior  country_name  
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"x2.doc"'"':x2.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\Romi\Dropbox\PhD Thesis\Second\RAP\Submission\R&R January"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "x2.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}.  
. **Assumption of identification
. 
. **Model A10. Spatial Lag of Coups (distance <950km)
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 SL_lag_coupa Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-159.69388}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.39004}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.41979}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40652}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40651}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -844.359}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-664.27568}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-639.75035}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.34582}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.29139}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.29127}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.29127}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-161.50329}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -134.3862}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.99016}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.95897}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -132.9589}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -132.9589}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-776.09034}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.31546}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.54687}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.09912}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -770.0509}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.04459}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.04457}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3330
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3097
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      233

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}   109.79
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-770.0446                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:112} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8253559{col 26}{space 2} .1877295{col 37}{space 1}   -4.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.193299{col 67}{space 3}-.4574128
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.741197{col 26}{space 2} .2201314{col 37}{space 1}   -3.37{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-1.172647{col 67}{space 3}-.3097473
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3213796{col 26}{space 2} .2074469{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4} -.727968{col 67}{space 3} .0852089
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0546822{col 26}{space 2} .0676515{col 37}{space 1}    0.81{col 46}{space 3}0.419{col 54}{space 4}-.0779123{col 67}{space 3} .1872767
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0167442{col 26}{space 2} .0876816{col 37}{space 1}    0.19{col 46}{space 3}0.849{col 54}{space 4}-.1551085{col 67}{space 3} .1885969
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7797824{col 26}{space 2}  .532508{col 37}{space 1}   -1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.143{col 54}{space 4}-1.823479{col 67}{space 3} .2639142
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4002296{col 26}{space 2} .1065643{col 37}{space 1}    3.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1913673{col 67}{space 3} .6090919
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0499306{col 26}{space 2} .0696184{col 37}{space 1}    0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.473{col 54}{space 4}-.0865191{col 67}{space 3} .1863802
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1040781{col 26}{space 2} .0532942{col 37}{space 1}   -1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.051{col 54}{space 4}-.2085328{col 67}{space 3} .0003765
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0442138{col 26}{space 2} .1224017{col 37}{space 1}   -0.36{col 46}{space 3}0.718{col 54}{space 4}-.2841167{col 67}{space 3} .1956892
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0497018{col 26}{space 2} .0728857{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.495{col 54}{space 4}-.0931516{col 67}{space 3} .1925552
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0015018{col 26}{space 2}  .001423{col 37}{space 1}   -1.06{col 46}{space 3}0.291{col 54}{space 4}-.0042908{col 67}{space 3} .0012873
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0016789{col 26}{space 2}  .001385{col 37}{space 1}    1.21{col 46}{space 3}0.225{col 54}{space 4}-.0010356{col 67}{space 3} .0043934
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0008357{col 26}{space 2} .0006013{col 37}{space 1}   -1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.165{col 54}{space 4}-.0020142{col 67}{space 3} .0003428
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2325974{col 26}{space 2} .9052265{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.797{col 54}{space 4}-2.006809{col 67}{space 3} 1.541614
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6106481{col 26}{space 2} .0971165{col 37}{space 1}   -6.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.800993{col 67}{space 3}-.4203033
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4158434{col 26}{space 2} .1489988{col 37}{space 1}   -2.79{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-.7078756{col 67}{space 3}-.1238111
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1272676{col 26}{space 2} .1166465{col 37}{space 1}   -1.09{col 46}{space 3}0.275{col 54}{space 4}-.3558906{col 67}{space 3} .1013554
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
SL_lag_coupa {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.558213{col 26}{space 2} .5108896{col 37}{space 1}    6.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.556888{col 67}{space 3} 4.559539
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2611278{col 26}{space 2} .0642787{col 37}{space 1}    4.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1351439{col 67}{space 3} .3871116
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.007552{col 26}{space 2} .0531192{col 37}{space 1}   -0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.887{col 54}{space 4}-.1116638{col 67}{space 3} .0965598
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.222272{col 26}{space 2} .3422144{col 37}{space 1}   -3.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}   -1.893{col 67}{space 3}-.5515441
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2514783{col 26}{space 2} .0609992{col 37}{space 1}    4.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1319221{col 67}{space 3} .3710345
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0400748{col 26}{space 2} .0457378{col 37}{space 1}    0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.381{col 54}{space 4}-.0495697{col 67}{space 3} .1297193
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1594176{col 26}{space 2} .0307015{col 37}{space 1}   -5.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2195915{col 67}{space 3}-.0992437
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1304302{col 26}{space 2}  .049623{col 37}{space 1}   -2.63{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.2276895{col 67}{space 3}-.0331709
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0234171{col 26}{space 2} .0185638{col 37}{space 1}    1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-.0129674{col 67}{space 3} .0598015
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0004428{col 26}{space 2} .0006403{col 37}{space 1}    0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.489{col 54}{space 4}-.0008122{col 67}{space 3} .0016978
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0003387{col 26}{space 2} .0004238{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.424{col 54}{space 4}-.0011694{col 67}{space 3}  .000492
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001405{col 26}{space 2} .0001295{col 37}{space 1}    1.08{col 46}{space 3}0.278{col 54}{space 4}-.0001133{col 67}{space 3} .0003943
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .566905{col 26}{space 2}  .531647{col 37}{space 1}    1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.286{col 54}{space 4} -.475104{col 67}{space 3} 1.608914
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.208216{col 26}{space 2} 1.013214{col 37}{space 1}    1.19{col 46}{space 3}0.233{col 54}{space 4}-.7776468{col 67}{space 3}  3.19408
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2} .8361437{col 26}{space 2} .3048394{col 54}{space 4} -.651354{col 67}{space 3} .9966429
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    1.42   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.2331
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Model A11 - Miller EBA
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 mjo_region_s_np_nbc_2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-161.33509}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-139.76211}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.85009}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.83864}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.83863}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-852.07169}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-698.85703}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-681.43869}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-680.54522}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-680.51767}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-680.51765}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-162.88959}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-139.08338}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.15254}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.14095}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.14095}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-819.50452}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-818.73365}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-818.70512}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-818.68079}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-818.68078}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3365
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3130
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      235

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}    34.06
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-818.6808                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0020

{txt}{ralign 87:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |}{col 35}    Robust
{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup                 {txt}{c |}
{space 14}autleg3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4324183{col 35}{space 2} .3571968{col 46}{space 1}   -1.21{col 55}{space 3}0.226{col 63}{space 4}-1.132511{col 76}{space 3} .2676746
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}defacto2 {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  -.46782{col 35}{space 2} .2896435{col 46}{space 1}   -1.62{col 55}{space 3}0.106{col 63}{space 4}-1.035511{col 76}{space 3} .0998708
{txt}{space 19}2  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2611866{col 35}{space 2} .2478328{col 46}{space 1}   -1.05{col 55}{space 3}0.292{col 63}{space 4}  -.74693{col 76}{space 3} .2245567
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 15}Purges {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0754666{col 35}{space 2}  .034737{col 46}{space 1}   -2.17{col 55}{space 3}0.030{col 63}{space 4}-.1435498{col 76}{space 3}-.0073833
{txt}{space 14}lrgdppc {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0766645{col 35}{space 2} .1280687{col 46}{space 1}   -0.60{col 55}{space 3}0.549{col 63}{space 4}-.3276745{col 76}{space 3} .1743454
{txt}{space 15}lGDPch {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0851738{col 35}{space 2} .7738304{col 46}{space 1}    0.11{col 55}{space 3}0.912{col 63}{space 4}-1.431506{col 76}{space 3} 1.601854
{txt}{space 9}linstability {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0970034{col 35}{space 2} .1731673{col 46}{space 1}    0.56{col 55}{space 3}0.575{col 63}{space 4}-.2423983{col 76}{space 3} .4364051
{txt}{space 13}lmilexch {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0618371{col 35}{space 2} .1006292{col 46}{space 1}    0.61{col 55}{space 3}0.539{col 63}{space 4}-.1353926{col 76}{space 3} .2590667
{txt}{space 14}lmilper {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0511698{col 35}{space 2} .0807859{col 46}{space 1}    0.63{col 55}{space 3}0.526{col 63}{space 4}-.1071676{col 76}{space 3} .2095072
{txt}{space 13}lmilexpc {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0870893{col 35}{space 2} .1303009{col 46}{space 1}    0.67{col 55}{space 3}0.504{col 63}{space 4}-.1682957{col 76}{space 3} .3424743
{txt}{space 16}pre_h {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0313862{col 35}{space 2} .0832183{col 46}{space 1}   -0.38{col 55}{space 3}0.706{col 63}{space 4}-.1944912{col 76}{space 3} .1317187
{txt}{space 16}h_sp1 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0024504{col 35}{space 2} .0013815{col 46}{space 1}   -1.77{col 55}{space 3}0.076{col 63}{space 4} -.005158{col 76}{space 3} .0002572
{txt}{space 16}h_sp2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0024876{col 35}{space 2} .0012576{col 46}{space 1}    1.98{col 55}{space 3}0.048{col 63}{space 4} .0000227{col 76}{space 3} .0049525
{txt}{space 16}h_sp3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0011459{col 35}{space 2} .0005123{col 46}{space 1}   -2.24{col 55}{space 3}0.025{col 63}{space 4}  -.00215{col 76}{space 3}-.0001417
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .8809142{col 35}{space 2} 1.239806{col 46}{space 1}    0.71{col 55}{space 3}0.477{col 63}{space 4}-1.549061{col 76}{space 3} 3.310889
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a                {txt}{c |}
{space 14}autleg3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5499728{col 35}{space 2} .0904274{col 46}{space 1}   -6.08{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.7272072{col 76}{space 3}-.3727384
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}defacto2 {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3751729{col 35}{space 2} .1590308{col 46}{space 1}   -2.36{col 55}{space 3}0.018{col 63}{space 4}-.6868677{col 76}{space 3}-.0634782
{txt}{space 19}2  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1032452{col 35}{space 2} .1136405{col 46}{space 1}   -0.91{col 55}{space 3}0.364{col 63}{space 4}-.3259764{col 76}{space 3} .1194861
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
mjo_region_s_np_nbc_2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.099802{col 35}{space 2} 1.027973{col 46}{space 1}    1.07{col 55}{space 3}0.285{col 63}{space 4}-.9149887{col 76}{space 3} 3.114592
{txt}{space 15}Purges {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}   .28621{col 35}{space 2} .0457635{col 46}{space 1}    6.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1965151{col 76}{space 3} .3759048
{txt}{space 14}lrgdppc {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0144368{col 35}{space 2}  .057495{col 46}{space 1}   -0.25{col 55}{space 3}0.802{col 63}{space 4} -.127125{col 76}{space 3} .0982514
{txt}{space 15}lGDPch {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.9224071{col 35}{space 2} .3383868{col 46}{space 1}   -2.73{col 55}{space 3}0.006{col 63}{space 4}-1.585633{col 76}{space 3}-.2591812
{txt}{space 9}linstability {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2495079{col 35}{space 2} .0604755{col 46}{space 1}    4.13{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1309781{col 76}{space 3} .3680377
{txt}{space 13}lmilexch {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0299717{col 35}{space 2} .0374141{col 46}{space 1}    0.80{col 55}{space 3}0.423{col 63}{space 4}-.0433586{col 76}{space 3} .1033021
{txt}{space 14}lmilper {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1679192{col 35}{space 2} .0341545{col 46}{space 1}   -4.92{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.2348609{col 76}{space 3}-.1009775
{txt}{space 13}lmilexpc {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1141719{col 35}{space 2} .0518027{col 46}{space 1}   -2.20{col 55}{space 3}0.028{col 63}{space 4}-.2157034{col 76}{space 3}-.0126405
{txt}{space 16}pre_a {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0685486{col 35}{space 2} .0159289{col 46}{space 1}    4.30{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0373286{col 76}{space 3} .0997687
{txt}{space 16}a_sp1 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0010802{col 35}{space 2} .0007179{col 46}{space 1}    1.50{col 55}{space 3}0.132{col 63}{space 4}-.0003269{col 76}{space 3} .0024873
{txt}{space 16}a_sp2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.000664{col 35}{space 2} .0004774{col 46}{space 1}   -1.39{col 55}{space 3}0.164{col 63}{space 4}-.0015998{col 76}{space 3} .0002717
{txt}{space 16}a_sp3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0001859{col 35}{space 2}  .000142{col 46}{space 1}    1.31{col 55}{space 3}0.190{col 63}{space 4}-.0000924{col 76}{space 3} .0004641
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .5494999{col 35}{space 2} .5288357{col 46}{space 1}    1.04{col 55}{space 3}0.299{col 63}{space 4}-.4869991{col 76}{space 3} 1.585999
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
              /athrho {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5899961{col 35}{space 2} .5073902{col 46}{space 1}   -1.16{col 55}{space 3}0.245{col 63}{space 4}-1.584463{col 76}{space 3} .4044703
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  rho{col 23}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.5298928{col 35}{space 2} .3649219{col 63}{space 4} -.919296{col 76}{space 3} .3837674
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    1.35   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.2449
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Model A12. Institutionalized succession rules
.  heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 succession Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-151.75519}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-130.90161}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -129.9509}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-129.93711}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-129.93711}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-807.30106}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-660.84939}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-644.19493}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-643.26307}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -643.234}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-643.23397}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-152.49238}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-129.25032}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-128.33013}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-128.31836}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-128.31836}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-778.41754}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-773.55895}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-773.05691}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.79712}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.79237}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.79229}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.79229}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3286
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3066
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      220

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}    32.02
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-771.7923                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0040

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:114} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup        {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3535198{col 26}{space 2} .2668871{col 37}{space 1}   -1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.185{col 54}{space 4} -.876609{col 67}{space 3} .1695693
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4025612{col 26}{space 2} .2654611{col 37}{space 1}   -1.52{col 46}{space 3}0.129{col 54}{space 4}-.9228554{col 67}{space 3} .1177331
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2457095{col 26}{space 2} .2343444{col 37}{space 1}   -1.05{col 46}{space 3}0.294{col 54}{space 4}-.7050161{col 67}{space 3} .2135972
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0861895{col 26}{space 2} .0378242{col 37}{space 1}   -2.28{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-.1603236{col 67}{space 3}-.0120555
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0607427{col 26}{space 2} .1444077{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.674{col 54}{space 4}-.3437766{col 67}{space 3} .2222912
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1557459{col 26}{space 2} .6537158{col 37}{space 1}    0.24{col 46}{space 3}0.812{col 54}{space 4}-1.125513{col 67}{space 3} 1.437005
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1169532{col 26}{space 2} .1554272{col 37}{space 1}    0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.452{col 54}{space 4}-.1876784{col 67}{space 3} .4215848
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0515494{col 26}{space 2}   .09368{col 37}{space 1}    0.55{col 46}{space 3}0.582{col 54}{space 4}  -.13206{col 67}{space 3} .2351588
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0737714{col 26}{space 2} .0757917{col 37}{space 1}    0.97{col 46}{space 3}0.330{col 54}{space 4}-.0747776{col 67}{space 3} .2223204
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1192909{col 26}{space 2}   .12955{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.357{col 54}{space 4}-.1346225{col 67}{space 3} .3732043
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0389053{col 26}{space 2}  .078819{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.622{col 54}{space 4}-.1933878{col 67}{space 3} .1155772
{txt}{space 7}h_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0025975{col 26}{space 2}  .001387{col 37}{space 1}   -1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.061{col 54}{space 4}-.0053159{col 67}{space 3} .0001208
{txt}{space 7}h_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0026202{col 26}{space 2} .0012366{col 37}{space 1}    2.12{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4} .0001965{col 67}{space 3} .0050439
{txt}{space 7}h_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0011939{col 26}{space 2} .0004862{col 37}{space 1}   -2.46{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-.0021469{col 67}{space 3}-.0002409
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4281018{col 26}{space 2} 1.285708{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.739{col 54}{space 4}-2.091839{col 67}{space 3} 2.948042
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a       {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6817143{col 26}{space 2} .1050136{col 37}{space 1}   -6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8875372{col 67}{space 3}-.4758914
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}defacto2 {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3576543{col 26}{space 2} .1561989{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-.6637986{col 67}{space 3}  -.05151
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1217124{col 26}{space 2} .1302122{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.350{col 54}{space 4}-.3769236{col 67}{space 3} .1334987
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 2}succession {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3092775{col 26}{space 2} .1397551{col 37}{space 1}    2.21{col 46}{space 3}0.027{col 54}{space 4} .0353624{col 67}{space 3} .5831925
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2686178{col 26}{space 2} .0451438{col 37}{space 1}    5.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1801375{col 67}{space 3}  .357098
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0027813{col 26}{space 2} .0602411{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.963{col 54}{space 4}-.1208517{col 67}{space 3} .1152891
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9189033{col 26}{space 2} .3390913{col 37}{space 1}   -2.71{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} -1.58351{col 67}{space 3}-.2542966
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .261501{col 26}{space 2} .0624952{col 37}{space 1}    4.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1390126{col 67}{space 3} .3839894
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0285619{col 26}{space 2} .0398893{col 37}{space 1}    0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.474{col 54}{space 4}-.0496197{col 67}{space 3} .1067435
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1742716{col 26}{space 2} .0364784{col 37}{space 1}   -4.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.245768{col 67}{space 3}-.1027752
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1328913{col 26}{space 2} .0511096{col 37}{space 1}   -2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}-.2330642{col 67}{space 3}-.0327183
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .075213{col 26}{space 2} .0146782{col 37}{space 1}    5.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0464443{col 67}{space 3} .1039817
{txt}{space 7}a_sp1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0013794{col 26}{space 2} .0007498{col 37}{space 1}    1.84{col 46}{space 3}0.066{col 54}{space 4}-.0000902{col 67}{space 3} .0028491
{txt}{space 7}a_sp2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0008408{col 26}{space 2} .0005009{col 37}{space 1}   -1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.093{col 54}{space 4}-.0018226{col 67}{space 3}  .000141
{txt}{space 7}a_sp3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0002276{col 26}{space 2} .0001493{col 37}{space 1}    1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.127{col 54}{space 4}-.0000649{col 67}{space 3} .0005202
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5459967{col 26}{space 2} .5293124{col 37}{space 1}    1.03{col 46}{space 3}0.302{col 54}{space 4}-.4914366{col 67}{space 3}  1.58343
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.703447{col 26}{space 2} .3288923{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4}-1.348064{col 67}{space 3}-.0588299
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         rho{col 14}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6065512{col 26}{space 2} .2078914{col 54}{space 4}-.8735956{col 67}{space 3}-.0587622
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    4.57   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0324
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***Model A13. SL Democracies 
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 SL_polyarchy_neigh Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-155.73488}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.73068}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-131.65961}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-131.64363}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-131.64362}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-826.48175}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-675.41559}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-656.69299}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-655.80345}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-655.77676}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-655.77674}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-157.34441}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-131.09942}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-130.00454}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-129.98715}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-129.98715}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -792.8283}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -787.7421}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -787.4299}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-786.03754}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -785.9671}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-785.94816}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-785.94782}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-785.94782}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3298
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3071
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      227

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}    35.54
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-785.9478                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0012

{txt}{ralign 84:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:112} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32}    Robust
{col 20}{c |}      Coef.{col 32}   Std. Err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% Con{col 73}f. Interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup              {txt}{c |}
{space 11}autleg3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.4065577{col 32}{space 2} .3639876{col 43}{space 1}   -1.12{col 52}{space 3}0.264{col 60}{space 4} -1.11996{col 73}{space 3} .3068449
{txt}{space 18} {c |}
{space 10}defacto2 {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.3663425{col 32}{space 2} .2663771{col 43}{space 1}   -1.38{col 52}{space 3}0.169{col 60}{space 4}-.8884321{col 73}{space 3}  .155747
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1681125{col 32}{space 2} .2318143{col 43}{space 1}   -0.73{col 52}{space 3}0.468{col 60}{space 4}-.6224601{col 73}{space 3} .2862351
{txt}{space 18} {c |}
{space 12}Purges {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0713738{col 32}{space 2} .0297161{col 43}{space 1}   -2.40{col 52}{space 3}0.016{col 60}{space 4}-.1296162{col 73}{space 3}-.0131313
{txt}{space 11}lrgdppc {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0580084{col 32}{space 2} .1262245{col 43}{space 1}   -0.46{col 52}{space 3}0.646{col 60}{space 4}-.3054039{col 73}{space 3} .1893872
{txt}{space 12}lGDPch {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .7955078{col 32}{space 2} .7844438{col 43}{space 1}    1.01{col 52}{space 3}0.311{col 60}{space 4}-.7419739{col 73}{space 3} 2.332989
{txt}{space 6}linstability {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0986954{col 32}{space 2}  .162482{col 43}{space 1}    0.61{col 52}{space 3}0.544{col 60}{space 4}-.2197635{col 73}{space 3} .4171543
{txt}{space 10}lmilexch {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0570416{col 32}{space 2} .0872163{col 43}{space 1}    0.65{col 52}{space 3}0.513{col 60}{space 4}-.1138992{col 73}{space 3} .2279825
{txt}{space 11}lmilper {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0824685{col 32}{space 2} .0722054{col 43}{space 1}    1.14{col 52}{space 3}0.253{col 60}{space 4}-.0590514{col 73}{space 3} .2239884
{txt}{space 10}lmilexpc {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0920521{col 32}{space 2} .1241673{col 43}{space 1}    0.74{col 52}{space 3}0.458{col 60}{space 4}-.1513113{col 73}{space 3} .3354155
{txt}{space 13}pre_h {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0269057{col 32}{space 2} .0769374{col 43}{space 1}   -0.35{col 52}{space 3}0.727{col 60}{space 4}-.1777003{col 73}{space 3}  .123889
{txt}{space 13}h_sp1 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0026299{col 32}{space 2} .0013698{col 43}{space 1}   -1.92{col 52}{space 3}0.055{col 60}{space 4}-.0053147{col 73}{space 3} .0000549
{txt}{space 13}h_sp2 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0026702{col 32}{space 2} .0012579{col 43}{space 1}    2.12{col 52}{space 3}0.034{col 60}{space 4} .0002047{col 73}{space 3} .0051356
{txt}{space 13}h_sp3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0012229{col 32}{space 2} .0005172{col 43}{space 1}   -2.36{col 52}{space 3}0.018{col 60}{space 4}-.0022367{col 73}{space 3}-.0002092
{txt}{space 13}_cons {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .6650428{col 32}{space 2} 1.232056{col 43}{space 1}    0.54{col 52}{space 3}0.589{col 60}{space 4}-1.749742{col 73}{space 3} 3.079827
{txt}{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a             {txt}{c |}
{space 11}autleg3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.5779052{col 32}{space 2}  .094158{col 43}{space 1}   -6.14{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.7624516{col 73}{space 3}-.3933589
{txt}{space 18} {c |}
{space 10}defacto2 {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.3884418{col 32}{space 2} .1604734{col 43}{space 1}   -2.42{col 52}{space 3}0.015{col 60}{space 4}-.7029639{col 73}{space 3}-.0739197
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.173641{col 32}{space 2} .1144014{col 43}{space 1}   -1.52{col 52}{space 3}0.129{col 60}{space 4}-.3978636{col 73}{space 3} .0505817
{txt}{space 18} {c |}
SL_polyarchy_neigh {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .374556{col 32}{space 2} .3851195{col 43}{space 1}    0.97{col 52}{space 3}0.331{col 60}{space 4}-.3802642{col 73}{space 3} 1.129376
{txt}{space 12}Purges {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3230098{col 32}{space 2} .0468205{col 43}{space 1}    6.90{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .2312433{col 73}{space 3} .4147764
{txt}{space 11}lrgdppc {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0076773{col 32}{space 2} .0598579{col 43}{space 1}    0.13{col 52}{space 3}0.898{col 60}{space 4}-.1096421{col 73}{space 3} .1249967
{txt}{space 12}lGDPch {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.9162875{col 32}{space 2} .3369434{col 43}{space 1}   -2.72{col 52}{space 3}0.007{col 60}{space 4}-1.576684{col 73}{space 3}-.2558907
{txt}{space 6}linstability {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2300423{col 32}{space 2} .0618966{col 43}{space 1}    3.72{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .1087273{col 73}{space 3} .3513574
{txt}{space 10}lmilexch {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0211796{col 32}{space 2} .0401439{col 43}{space 1}    0.53{col 52}{space 3}0.598{col 60}{space 4}-.0575011{col 73}{space 3} .0998602
{txt}{space 11}lmilper {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.181532{col 32}{space 2} .0350791{col 43}{space 1}   -5.17{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.2502858{col 73}{space 3}-.1127782
{txt}{space 10}lmilexpc {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1196058{col 32}{space 2} .0532566{col 43}{space 1}   -2.25{col 52}{space 3}0.025{col 60}{space 4}-.2239868{col 73}{space 3}-.0152248
{txt}{space 13}pre_a {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0695555{col 32}{space 2} .0165162{col 43}{space 1}    4.21{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .0371843{col 73}{space 3} .1019267
{txt}{space 13}a_sp1 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0008887{col 32}{space 2} .0007339{col 43}{space 1}    1.21{col 52}{space 3}0.226{col 60}{space 4}-.0005498{col 73}{space 3} .0023271
{txt}{space 13}a_sp2 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0005512{col 32}{space 2} .0004847{col 43}{space 1}   -1.14{col 52}{space 3}0.255{col 60}{space 4}-.0015011{col 73}{space 3} .0003987
{txt}{space 13}a_sp3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0001609{col 32}{space 2} .0001422{col 43}{space 1}    1.13{col 52}{space 3}0.258{col 60}{space 4}-.0001178{col 73}{space 3} .0004395
{txt}{space 13}_cons {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4601192{col 32}{space 2} .5303158{col 43}{space 1}    0.87{col 52}{space 3}0.386{col 60}{space 4}-.5792806{col 73}{space 3} 1.499519
{txt}{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
           /athrho {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.7657497{col 32}{space 2} .4892678{col 43}{space 1}   -1.57{col 52}{space 3}0.118{col 60}{space 4}-1.724697{col 73}{space 3} .1931976
{txt}{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}               rho{col 20}{c |}{res}{space 2}-.6444512{col 32}{space 2} .2860664{col 60}{space 4}-.9384261{col 73}{space 3} .1908293
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    2.45   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.1176
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Model A14 and 15
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 SL_lag_coupa SL_elected_neigh Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-159.69388}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.39004}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.41979}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40652}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40651}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -844.359}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-664.35914}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-639.74791}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -638.3261}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.27076}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.27065}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.27065}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-161.50329}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -134.4758}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-133.08183}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-133.05118}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-133.05111}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-133.05111}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-776.17418}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.38232}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.32105}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.93069}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.92138}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91192}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91176}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91176}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3330
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3097
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      233

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}   110.10
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.9118                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:112} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup            {txt}{c |}
{space 9}autleg3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.8182646{col 30}{space 2} .2232462{col 41}{space 1}   -3.67{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-1.255819{col 71}{space 3}-.3807101
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 8}defacto2 {c |}
{space 14}1  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7389976{col 30}{space 2} .2174554{col 41}{space 1}   -3.40{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4}-1.165202{col 71}{space 3}-.3127928
{txt}{space 14}2  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3248221{col 30}{space 2} .1998419{col 41}{space 1}   -1.63{col 50}{space 3}0.104{col 58}{space 4}-.7165052{col 71}{space 3} .0668609
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 10}Purges {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0587767{col 30}{space 2} .0826892{col 41}{space 1}    0.71{col 50}{space 3}0.477{col 58}{space 4}-.1032911{col 71}{space 3} .2208444
{txt}{space 9}lrgdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}    .0202{col 30}{space 2} .0887864{col 41}{space 1}    0.23{col 50}{space 3}0.820{col 58}{space 4}-.1538183{col 71}{space 3} .1942182
{txt}{space 10}lGDPch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7863341{col 30}{space 2} .5274208{col 41}{space 1}   -1.49{col 50}{space 3}0.136{col 58}{space 4} -1.82006{col 71}{space 3} .2473916
{txt}{space 4}linstability {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3990026{col 30}{space 2} .1120229{col 41}{space 1}    3.56{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1794418{col 71}{space 3} .6185633
{txt}{space 8}lmilexch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .049782{col 30}{space 2} .0677157{col 41}{space 1}    0.74{col 50}{space 3}0.462{col 58}{space 4}-.0829383{col 71}{space 3} .1825024
{txt}{space 9}lmilper {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1073792{col 30}{space 2} .0594834{col 41}{space 1}   -1.81{col 50}{space 3}0.071{col 58}{space 4}-.2239645{col 71}{space 3} .0092061
{txt}{space 8}lmilexpc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0514345{col 30}{space 2} .1422144{col 41}{space 1}   -0.36{col 50}{space 3}0.718{col 58}{space 4}-.3301696{col 71}{space 3} .2273007
{txt}{space 11}pre_h {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0490166{col 30}{space 2} .0748419{col 41}{space 1}    0.65{col 50}{space 3}0.513{col 58}{space 4}-.0976708{col 71}{space 3}  .195704
{txt}{space 11}h_sp1 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0013996{col 30}{space 2} .0017884{col 41}{space 1}   -0.78{col 50}{space 3}0.434{col 58}{space 4}-.0049049{col 71}{space 3} .0021057
{txt}{space 11}h_sp2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .001574{col 30}{space 2} .0017793{col 41}{space 1}    0.88{col 50}{space 3}0.376{col 58}{space 4}-.0019132{col 71}{space 3} .0050613
{txt}{space 11}h_sp3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0007885{col 30}{space 2} .0007855{col 41}{space 1}   -1.00{col 50}{space 3}0.315{col 58}{space 4}-.0023281{col 71}{space 3} .0007511
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2262412{col 30}{space 2} .9047938{col 41}{space 1}   -0.25{col 50}{space 3}0.803{col 58}{space 4}-1.999605{col 71}{space 3} 1.547122
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a           {txt}{c |}
{space 9}autleg3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.6393251{col 30}{space 2} .1499134{col 41}{space 1}   -4.26{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.9331501{col 71}{space 3}-.3455002
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 8}defacto2 {c |}
{space 14}1  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4179992{col 30}{space 2} .1481224{col 41}{space 1}   -2.82{col 50}{space 3}0.005{col 58}{space 4}-.7083138{col 71}{space 3}-.1276846
{txt}{space 14}2  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1251186{col 30}{space 2} .1168596{col 41}{space 1}   -1.07{col 50}{space 3}0.284{col 58}{space 4}-.3541593{col 71}{space 3} .1039221
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 4}SL_lag_coupa {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 3.572429{col 30}{space 2} .4998265{col 41}{space 1}    7.15{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 2.592787{col 71}{space 3} 4.552071
{txt}SL_elected_neigh {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0722299{col 30}{space 2} .1909365{col 41}{space 1}    0.38{col 50}{space 3}0.705{col 58}{space 4}-.3019986{col 71}{space 3} .4464585
{txt}{space 10}Purges {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2583024{col 30}{space 2}  .076159{col 41}{space 1}    3.39{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} .1090335{col 71}{space 3} .4075713
{txt}{space 9}lrgdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0065273{col 30}{space 2} .0528895{col 41}{space 1}   -0.12{col 50}{space 3}0.902{col 58}{space 4}-.1101888{col 71}{space 3} .0971342
{txt}{space 10}lGDPch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-1.223163{col 30}{space 2} .3426942{col 41}{space 1}   -3.57{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-1.894831{col 71}{space 3} -.551495
{txt}{space 4}linstability {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2519664{col 30}{space 2} .0622784{col 41}{space 1}    4.05{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1299029{col 71}{space 3} .3740299
{txt}{space 8}lmilexch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0394138{col 30}{space 2}  .046009{col 41}{space 1}    0.86{col 50}{space 3}0.392{col 58}{space 4}-.0507622{col 71}{space 3} .1295898
{txt}{space 9}lmilper {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.158103{col 30}{space 2} .0312335{col 41}{space 1}   -5.06{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.2193195{col 71}{space 3}-.0968864
{txt}{space 8}lmilexpc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1299849{col 30}{space 2} .0496103{col 41}{space 1}   -2.62{col 50}{space 3}0.009{col 58}{space 4}-.2272194{col 71}{space 3}-.0327505
{txt}{space 11}pre_a {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0228289{col 30}{space 2} .0183714{col 41}{space 1}    1.24{col 50}{space 3}0.214{col 58}{space 4}-.0131783{col 71}{space 3} .0588361
{txt}{space 11}a_sp1 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0004363{col 30}{space 2} .0006454{col 41}{space 1}    0.68{col 50}{space 3}0.499{col 58}{space 4}-.0008287{col 71}{space 3} .0017014
{txt}{space 11}a_sp2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0003339{col 30}{space 2} .0004238{col 41}{space 1}   -0.79{col 50}{space 3}0.431{col 58}{space 4}-.0011645{col 71}{space 3} .0004967
{txt}{space 11}a_sp3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001392{col 30}{space 2} .0001289{col 41}{space 1}    1.08{col 50}{space 3}0.280{col 58}{space 4}-.0001134{col 71}{space 3} .0003919
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .5299467{col 30}{space 2} .5354274{col 41}{space 1}    0.99{col 50}{space 3}0.322{col 58}{space 4}-.5194718{col 71}{space 3} 1.579365
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         /athrho {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 1.305468{col 30}{space 2}  1.52706{col 41}{space 1}    0.85{col 50}{space 3}0.393{col 58}{space 4}-1.687514{col 71}{space 3} 4.298449
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}             rho{col 18}{c |}{res}{space 2} .8631241{col 30}{space 2} .3894259{col 58}{space 4}-.9338298{col 71}{space 3} .9996307
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    0.73   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.3926
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. heckprob hcoup autleg3 i.defacto2 Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h h_sp*, ///
> select (coup_a = autleg3 i.defacto2 SL_lag_coupa SL_singlep_neigh Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_a a_*) vce(cluster ccode) 

{txt}Fitting probit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-159.69388}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.39004}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.41979}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40652}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-137.40651}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -844.359}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -664.0568}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-639.67541}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.26728}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.21269}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.21258}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-638.21258}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting starting values:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-161.50329}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-134.33774}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.94832}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.91665}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.91657}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-132.91657}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -776.0079}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-771.20768}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -771.0158}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-770.06227}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.97755}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91693}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91555}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-769.91554}  
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      = {res}     3330
{txt}                                                Censored obs       = {res}     3097
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs     = {res}      233

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}14{txt})      = {res}   109.36
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.9155                {txt}Prob > chi2        =    {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:112} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}hcoup            {txt}{c |}
{space 9}autleg3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.8265448{col 30}{space 2} .1867432{col 41}{space 1}   -4.43{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-1.192555{col 71}{space 3}-.4605348
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 8}defacto2 {c |}
{space 14}1  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7430918{col 30}{space 2} .2199125{col 41}{space 1}   -3.38{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4}-1.174112{col 71}{space 3}-.3120712
{txt}{space 14}2  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3226727{col 30}{space 2}  .206869{col 41}{space 1}   -1.56{col 50}{space 3}0.119{col 58}{space 4}-.7281286{col 71}{space 3} .0827832
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 10}Purges {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0547664{col 30}{space 2} .0672303{col 41}{space 1}    0.81{col 50}{space 3}0.415{col 58}{space 4}-.0770025{col 71}{space 3} .1865354
{txt}{space 9}lrgdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0173236{col 30}{space 2}  .087722{col 41}{space 1}    0.20{col 50}{space 3}0.843{col 58}{space 4}-.1546084{col 71}{space 3} .1892556
{txt}{space 10}lGDPch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7799848{col 30}{space 2} .5326949{col 41}{space 1}   -1.46{col 50}{space 3}0.143{col 58}{space 4}-1.824048{col 71}{space 3}  .264078
{txt}{space 4}linstability {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .4003416{col 30}{space 2} .1069621{col 41}{space 1}    3.74{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1906997{col 71}{space 3} .6099835
{txt}{space 8}lmilexch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0496656{col 30}{space 2} .0698494{col 41}{space 1}    0.71{col 50}{space 3}0.477{col 58}{space 4}-.0872367{col 71}{space 3}  .186568
{txt}{space 9}lmilper {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1056841{col 30}{space 2} .0532197{col 41}{space 1}   -1.99{col 50}{space 3}0.047{col 58}{space 4}-.2099927{col 71}{space 3}-.0013755
{txt}{space 8}lmilexpc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0440062{col 30}{space 2}  .121875{col 41}{space 1}   -0.36{col 50}{space 3}0.718{col 58}{space 4}-.2828767{col 71}{space 3} .1948643
{txt}{space 11}pre_h {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0493339{col 30}{space 2} .0735113{col 41}{space 1}    0.67{col 50}{space 3}0.502{col 58}{space 4}-.0947457{col 71}{space 3} .1934134
{txt}{space 11}h_sp1 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0014944{col 30}{space 2} .0014244{col 41}{space 1}   -1.05{col 50}{space 3}0.294{col 58}{space 4}-.0042861{col 71}{space 3} .0012974
{txt}{space 11}h_sp2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0016662{col 30}{space 2} .0013887{col 41}{space 1}    1.20{col 50}{space 3}0.230{col 58}{space 4}-.0010555{col 71}{space 3} .0043879
{txt}{space 11}h_sp3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0008281{col 30}{space 2} .0006038{col 41}{space 1}   -1.37{col 50}{space 3}0.170{col 58}{space 4}-.0020116{col 71}{space 3} .0003555
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2345123{col 30}{space 2} .9044189{col 41}{space 1}   -0.26{col 50}{space 3}0.795{col 58}{space 4}-2.007141{col 71}{space 3} 1.538116
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}coup_a           {txt}{c |}
{space 9}autleg3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.6115634{col 30}{space 2} .0973622{col 41}{space 1}   -6.28{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.8023898{col 71}{space 3}-.4207369
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 8}defacto2 {c |}
{space 14}1  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4606191{col 30}{space 2} .1622723{col 41}{space 1}   -2.84{col 50}{space 3}0.005{col 58}{space 4}-.7786669{col 71}{space 3}-.1425713
{txt}{space 14}2  {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1236676{col 30}{space 2} .1176528{col 41}{space 1}   -1.05{col 50}{space 3}0.293{col 58}{space 4}-.3542629{col 71}{space 3} .1069277
{txt}{space 16} {c |}
{space 4}SL_lag_coupa {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 3.564809{col 30}{space 2} .5126014{col 41}{space 1}    6.95{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 2.560129{col 71}{space 3} 4.569489
{txt}SL_singlep_neigh {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0870245{col 30}{space 2} .1604016{col 41}{space 1}    0.54{col 50}{space 3}0.587{col 58}{space 4}-.2273568{col 71}{space 3} .4014058
{txt}{space 10}Purges {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2620066{col 30}{space 2} .0642058{col 41}{space 1}    4.08{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1361654{col 71}{space 3} .3878477
{txt}{space 9}lrgdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0049349{col 30}{space 2} .0532684{col 41}{space 1}   -0.09{col 50}{space 3}0.926{col 58}{space 4} -.109339{col 71}{space 3} .0994692
{txt}{space 10}lGDPch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-1.221586{col 30}{space 2} .3420094{col 41}{space 1}   -3.57{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-1.891912{col 71}{space 3}-.5512597
{txt}{space 4}linstability {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .253304{col 30}{space 2} .0610528{col 41}{space 1}    4.15{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1336427{col 71}{space 3} .3729652
{txt}{space 8}lmilexch {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .040114{col 30}{space 2} .0456885{col 41}{space 1}    0.88{col 50}{space 3}0.380{col 58}{space 4}-.0494338{col 71}{space 3} .1296617
{txt}{space 9}lmilper {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1595938{col 30}{space 2} .0305286{col 41}{space 1}   -5.23{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.2194288{col 71}{space 3}-.0997589
{txt}{space 8}lmilexpc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1317316{col 30}{space 2} .0492791{col 41}{space 1}   -2.67{col 50}{space 3}0.008{col 58}{space 4}-.2283169{col 71}{space 3}-.0351464
{txt}{space 11}pre_a {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0233044{col 30}{space 2} .0184543{col 41}{space 1}    1.26{col 50}{space 3}0.207{col 58}{space 4}-.0128654{col 71}{space 3} .0594743
{txt}{space 11}a_sp1 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0004411{col 30}{space 2} .0006405{col 41}{space 1}    0.69{col 50}{space 3}0.491{col 58}{space 4}-.0008142{col 71}{space 3} .0016964
{txt}{space 11}a_sp2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0003362{col 30}{space 2} .0004241{col 41}{space 1}   -0.79{col 50}{space 3}0.428{col 58}{space 4}-.0011675{col 71}{space 3} .0004952
{txt}{space 11}a_sp3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0001392{col 30}{space 2} .0001296{col 41}{space 1}    1.07{col 50}{space 3}0.283{col 58}{space 4}-.0001149{col 71}{space 3} .0003933
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .5472442{col 30}{space 2} .5333336{col 41}{space 1}    1.03{col 50}{space 3}0.305{col 58}{space 4}-.4980705{col 71}{space 3} 1.592559
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         /athrho {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  1.21285{col 30}{space 2} 1.014674{col 41}{space 1}    1.20{col 50}{space 3}0.232{col 58}{space 4}-.7758744{col 71}{space 3} 3.201574
{txt}{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}             rho{col 18}{c |}{res}{space 2} .8375323{col 30}{space 2} .3029204{col 58}{space 4}-.6503323{col 71}{space 3} .9966928
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    1.43   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.2320
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **Model A15 - Sartori
. sartsel dv_sartori autleg3 single_party mparty Purges lrgdppc lGDPch linstab lmilexch lmilper lmilexpc pre_h pre_a, corr (-1)
Correlation (rho) (Default = 1): -1
{txt}(343 missing values generated)
initial:       log likelihood = {res}-5409.7482
{txt}improve:       log likelihood = {res}-5409.7482
{txt}alternative:   log likelihood = {res}-3896.4184
{txt}rescale:       log likelihood = {res}-2709.5734
{txt}rescale eq:    log likelihood = {res} -1983.472

{txt}initial:       log likelihood = {res} -1983.472
{txt}rescale:       log likelihood = {res}-1780.8637
{txt}rescale eq:    log likelihood = {res}-1252.8288
{txt}Iteration 0:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-1252.8288{txt}  
Iteration 1:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-1156.7739{txt}  
Iteration 2:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-986.44918{txt}  
Iteration 3:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-978.96911{txt}  
Iteration 4:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-882.42619{txt}  
Iteration 5:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-851.46484{txt}  
Iteration 6:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-848.08614{txt}  
Iteration 7:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.81498{txt}  
Iteration 8:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.37623{txt}  
Iteration 9:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.33098{txt}  
Iteration 10:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.30198{txt}  
Iteration 11:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.29603{txt}  
Iteration 12:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.29158{txt}  
Iteration 13:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28913{txt}  
Iteration 14:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28898{txt}  
Iteration 15:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28897{txt}  
Iteration 16:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28894{txt}  (backed up)
Iteration 17:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28889{txt}  
Iteration 18:{col 16}log likelihood = {res}-846.28889{txt}  

{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}      3333
{col 51}{txt}Wald chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}    361.15
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-846.28889{col 51}{txt}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}  dv_sartori{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}Selection    {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6478321{col 26}{space 2} .0741822{col 37}{space 1}   -8.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7932265{col 67}{space 3}-.5024376
{txt}single_party {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3907091{col 26}{space 2} .1159582{col 37}{space 1}   -3.37{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} -.617983{col 67}{space 3}-.1634353
{txt}{space 6}mparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0978061{col 26}{space 2} .1009401{col 37}{space 1}   -0.97{col 46}{space 3}0.333{col 54}{space 4} -.295645{col 67}{space 3} .1000328
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2363996{col 26}{space 2} .0371798{col 37}{space 1}    6.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1635286{col 67}{space 3} .3092706
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0482722{col 26}{space 2} .0525247{col 37}{space 1}   -0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.358{col 54}{space 4}-.1512188{col 67}{space 3} .0546744
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9760948{col 26}{space 2} .3103693{col 37}{space 1}   -3.14{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-1.584407{col 67}{space 3}-.3677822
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2673847{col 26}{space 2} .0459568{col 37}{space 1}    5.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .177311{col 67}{space 3} .3574584
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.001144{col 26}{space 2} .0328755{col 37}{space 1}   -0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.972{col 54}{space 4}-.0655788{col 67}{space 3} .0632908
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1974119{col 26}{space 2} .0298362{col 37}{space 1}   -6.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2558898{col 67}{space 3} -.138934
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1133186{col 26}{space 2} .0466141{col 37}{space 1}   -2.43{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-.2046804{col 67}{space 3}-.0219567
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.109827{col 26}{space 2} .0549205{col 37}{space 1}   -2.00{col 46}{space 3}0.046{col 54}{space 4}-.2174692{col 67}{space 3}-.0021848
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1453512{col 26}{space 2} .0304256{col 37}{space 1}    4.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .085718{col 67}{space 3} .2049843
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8556463{col 26}{space 2} .4088293{col 37}{space 1}    2.09{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .0543557{col 67}{space 3} 1.656937
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}Outcome      {txt}{c |}
{space 5}autleg3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8131288{col 26}{space 2} .0936854{col 37}{space 1}    8.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6295087{col 67}{space 3} .9967489
{txt}single_party {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5810163{col 26}{space 2} .1469739{col 37}{space 1}    3.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2929527{col 67}{space 3} .8690798
{txt}{space 6}mparty {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2005445{col 26}{space 2}  .115134{col 37}{space 1}    1.74{col 46}{space 3}0.082{col 54}{space 4}-.0251139{col 67}{space 3} .4262029
{txt}{space 6}Purges {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1034124{col 26}{space 2} .0270786{col 37}{space 1}   -3.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1564855{col 67}{space 3}-.0503393
{txt}{space 5}lrgdppc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0980881{col 26}{space 2}  .071234{col 37}{space 1}    1.38{col 46}{space 3}0.169{col 54}{space 4}-.0415279{col 67}{space 3} .2377041
{txt}{space 6}lGDPch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .985069{col 26}{space 2} .3621924{col 37}{space 1}    2.72{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .2751849{col 67}{space 3} 1.694953
{txt}linstability {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3408236{col 26}{space 2} .0558389{col 37}{space 1}   -6.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4502657{col 67}{space 3}-.2313815
{txt}{space 4}lmilexch {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0197305{col 26}{space 2} .0400778{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.623{col 54}{space 4}-.0982816{col 67}{space 3} .0588205
{txt}{space 5}lmilper {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1528323{col 26}{space 2}  .038857{col 37}{space 1}    3.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0766739{col 67}{space 3} .2289907
{txt}{space 4}lmilexpc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0563261{col 26}{space 2} .0599654{col 37}{space 1}    0.94{col 46}{space 3}0.348{col 54}{space 4}-.0612039{col 67}{space 3} .1738561
{txt}{space 7}pre_h {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1898292{col 26}{space 2} .0742366{col 37}{space 1}    2.56{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0443282{col 67}{space 3} .3353302
{txt}{space 7}pre_a {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1709853{col 26}{space 2} .0414909{col 37}{space 1}   -4.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.252306{col 67}{space 3}-.0896646
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4300962{col 26}{space 2} .5733947{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.453{col 54}{space 4}-1.553929{col 67}{space 3} .6937368
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

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